Hi, I try to get an overview trough various marktet commentators on different scales and from different perspectives. You are one of the best, with the most relevant content and right most often. I often plan my portfolio decisions based on your 4 quadrants. For me it would be helpful if you could refer to it more often. Ideally in the end of each weekly update. saying which quadrant we are in and where we are moving towards and if the indications building up are likely to be sufficient to cross the line to another quadrant or if we are more likely to see only short lived momentum that is very likely to come back and if it therefore would be best to stay positioned as one is. Your work is highly appreciated!
Hey Alf, i largely agree except on Gold/USD. I still think gold will hold well simply because I dont think the fed will hike if something breaks.either way, i dont see the risk reward there.
Why the JPY/EUR? Also would really enjoy a Bank of Japan post from you
Thanks Alf. Your officially a celebrity (58K followers).
I do not understand the Gold trade against the US Dollar. It seems to me that with increasing rates, the US debt will substantially increase and Gold would be a good hedge against US Dollar. TIA
You mentioned long TLT as a possible idea going forward. Isn't the over supply of US bonds in the absence of any significant buyers in size going to be an issue for TLT? Isn't short HYG a safer place to be given the continued expectations for slowing growth (my expectations, maybe not the Fed's).
2. Can you talk a bit more about your short closing btp-bund? I understand Italy is to set to gain from potential ECB interventions. I have a few shorts on EZU so I'd like to check if the landscape is changing.
Jun 16, 2022·edited Jun 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Hi Alf! Outstanding article, as usual. As a suggestion, could you continue your Bond 101 intro to explain the ASW spread? Thanks a lot for all your work!
Hey Alf, great work as always! You asked how can you help us more... So you’ve been guiding us very well through all of this. By April you were telling us to move to cash. That’s great! Thank you!
However, a lot of folks (including myself) have personal wealth in vehicles that seem difficult to move to cash. E.g retirement accounts (401k, Roth, IRA etc), gifts to children (529, UGMA), company stock (RSUs, ESPP, etc), and finally our house/mortgage. I’m not panic selling, but I also feel as though my hands are tied and I just have to ride it out. Is there a better way?
The most obvious trade out there to me is to be short bond vol. are there any direct instruments you know of (other than putting together an option strategy oneself)
Would you consider short European banks (Sx7E Index). It looks like a perfect downtrend since early January. My idea is to buy a Put 80 September when the recent relief rally is fading as i am not convinced the ECB credibility about anti fragmentation will last for long.
Suggestion to add to the newsletter: you could have a "theme of the week" or "trade of the week" to consider e.g. Uranium, mining stocks (e.g. Glencore, Vale, Rio Tinto etc). Perhaps best not as endorsements but as food for thought / ideas to watch and get smart on for entry over the medium term
Hi, I try to get an overview trough various marktet commentators on different scales and from different perspectives. You are one of the best, with the most relevant content and right most often. I often plan my portfolio decisions based on your 4 quadrants. For me it would be helpful if you could refer to it more often. Ideally in the end of each weekly update. saying which quadrant we are in and where we are moving towards and if the indications building up are likely to be sufficient to cross the line to another quadrant or if we are more likely to see only short lived momentum that is very likely to come back and if it therefore would be best to stay positioned as one is. Your work is highly appreciated!
Hey Alf, i largely agree except on Gold/USD. I still think gold will hold well simply because I dont think the fed will hike if something breaks.either way, i dont see the risk reward there.
Why the JPY/EUR? Also would really enjoy a Bank of Japan post from you
Thanks!
Thanks Alf. Your officially a celebrity (58K followers).
I do not understand the Gold trade against the US Dollar. It seems to me that with increasing rates, the US debt will substantially increase and Gold would be a good hedge against US Dollar. TIA
You mentioned long TLT as a possible idea going forward. Isn't the over supply of US bonds in the absence of any significant buyers in size going to be an issue for TLT? Isn't short HYG a safer place to be given the continued expectations for slowing growth (my expectations, maybe not the Fed's).
Thanks (Macro Rookie here).
It would be nice to see a model Long/Short portfolio with weights including the percentage of cash to hold. Thank you for all help
You are on fire! Thanks Alf. And would love to see more bond market 101
Another great piece as always - thanks you Alfonso. Two quick followups:
1. Somehow am not able to find the "xxx and equities are going to tell us how restrictive we are" quote in the powell press conference transcript (https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-fed-chief-powells-postmeeting-press-conference-11655326563)
2. Can you talk a bit more about your short closing btp-bund? I understand Italy is to set to gain from potential ECB interventions. I have a few shorts on EZU so I'd like to check if the landscape is changing.
Hi Alf! Outstanding article, as usual. As a suggestion, could you continue your Bond 101 intro to explain the ASW spread? Thanks a lot for all your work!
Hey Alf, great work as always! You asked how can you help us more... So you’ve been guiding us very well through all of this. By April you were telling us to move to cash. That’s great! Thank you!
However, a lot of folks (including myself) have personal wealth in vehicles that seem difficult to move to cash. E.g retirement accounts (401k, Roth, IRA etc), gifts to children (529, UGMA), company stock (RSUs, ESPP, etc), and finally our house/mortgage. I’m not panic selling, but I also feel as though my hands are tied and I just have to ride it out. Is there a better way?
Thanks!
Hi Alf- Thanks for posting so much awesome content! (And it’s free)
Did I miss something? Where is the long only portfolio?
The most obvious trade out there to me is to be short bond vol. are there any direct instruments you know of (other than putting together an option strategy oneself)
Alf, where can someone learn about the relationship between different markets (equity, bonds, commodities, etc), money, debt and macro in general?
Hi Alf. Can you point us to where we can find your long only ETF portfolio please?
Hi Alfonso,
Would you consider short European banks (Sx7E Index). It looks like a perfect downtrend since early January. My idea is to buy a Put 80 September when the recent relief rally is fading as i am not convinced the ECB credibility about anti fragmentation will last for long.
Any view?
Suggestion to add to the newsletter: you could have a "theme of the week" or "trade of the week" to consider e.g. Uranium, mining stocks (e.g. Glencore, Vale, Rio Tinto etc). Perhaps best not as endorsements but as food for thought / ideas to watch and get smart on for entry over the medium term