Listen now | But Central Banks can't hear them (yet).
Props for the transparency of the portfolio. You are like the opposite of Ackman.
Impeccable macro-analysis, and very enjoyably presented!
Alf, great article as usual. I was wondering if real Fed's objective is QT rather than rate hikes. I have the feeling that the Fed is trying to be ready to be a buyer of last resort for Treasuries in case geopolitics warrant that, and cannot do that with such a bloated balance sheet and the situation in Ukraine is making it more difficult.
Thanks for this good enlightening :) Hans from Finland
Much appreciated men! Every time I've read you it felt more like a lesson than anything else, great teachings! Cheers from Guatemala.
Hello Alf. This is so well-explained, that I just want to use the word brilliant. I truly love your mindset.
I would appreciate if you’d add a column of the size of position, in % of Book size or dv01 relative to book size, together with a gross % exposure so as to bring up the discussion of leverage and margin needs of such leverage, its costs.
On the GT10, was carry added in? Implementation would be via futures or cash bonds, etc?
The closer to reality, if it isnt, the better.
Nice Work Alf, Always an enjoyable read
Thanks so much Alfonso...this is brilliant. I heard you talking with George Gammon and then subscribed. You are doing a great job.
Very insightful and helpful, much appreciated Alf!
Does anybody know of an easy way to check updates for that 5yr US Investment Grade Corporate CDS chart? I've looked but have yet to find it anywhere. Fed has a similar chart but the values in it are different. This really does seem to be an important measure to track during volatile times so any help would be appreciated!
Truely great and bite-sized analysis. Great work, cheers!
As always Alf valuable analysis :). However I wonder if such macro liquidity studies make sense in bigger context of current environment (Russian war). I mean what if Russia defaults? Who is the ultimate bag holder of Russian bonds and what implication it can have on european credit creation?
I'd like to see you talk more about gold within your macro-vision. Thanks for sharing - enjoyed the interview with Jeff and Emil!
How did you calculate that g5 credit impulse? I looked at the data from BIS and it seems to be delayed by a quarter or two.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts and inside as always Alf! From my end, I don't think central banks know where the strike price of their put is but the central bank put is very much NOT expired and ready to be exercised as they see fit.
The fact is that DM equities have become what Dr. Ben Hunt calls "political utilities" and therefore at some point DM central banks and fiscal authorities will at least attempt to manipulate DM equities as they see fit in order to push their political narratives (to the downside and the upside). Happy speculating my friends!