How can interest rates at 4.75% be dangerously tight, especially when you consider that real rates are probably around 0. The truth is the Fed has created such a mess that now the entire system is dependent on negative real rates. A nation of capital consumption is one in decline, and no amount of button pushing by the fed or anyone else can fix it.
The problem of China is not only real estate but it is more political. The CCP decided to put a stop to economic freedom the day they started to go after Jack Ma and Alibaba. Add to that a centralized economic approach based on industrial policy and you have all the ingredients for a fantastic crash…and demographic also doesn’t help
My opinion is that China is not bailing out the stock market as we in the west are. They are dealing with the pain, the west continues to kick the can down the road. Or, china has been buying gold, while the US continues to print dollars.
Good commentary, although there are still plenty of folks out there saying 0.5% was too much. I think a key comment is made by C.H. Smiles below: "..now the entire system is dependent on negative real rates." This is why 35% of my wealth is in non bank vaulted allocated and segregated gold and silver and ANOTHER 25% in PM stocks.
A cuppa cappuccino after dinner is a nice low-cal substitute for dessert. But a big mug of steaming filter coffee beats any espresso drink any time of day or evening.
The issues China is facing are serious but we should not over-dramatize as we had a stock crash in 2004 and a real estate crash in 2008. Economies recover regardless where the public holds most of its assets. One thing I would have loved to see in that part is the big difference in frugality and saving habits compared to US consumers who just increase their credit card debts, deceiving the FED to believe the economy is strong based on consumption when everything, federal, state and private consumptions is debt financed.
To me what we are witnessing is a change from a bipolar world to a multi-polar world and that change is not smooth. The G7 is constantly adding fuel to the fire. Latest example is are the measures against Chinese Ev's. I predict that will backfire spectacularly.
Those in power want to protect it against those aiming to gain it (i.e. BRICS).
no disrespect but It's a very lazy comparison saying Japan vs China are similar states. Thats the consensus view of most Western commentators. Look at Japan's GDP growth rate from bubble peak to now: average 1%. China is growing at 4 to 5% .
Government debt much less than Japan. Chinese household savings much higher than Japan etc
Chinese problem is far more serious than Japan because its root cause is political. Many Chinese cannot even withdraw their cash from banks. The CCP is covering lots of stuff so many Westerners don’t know the reality.
Increased money supply has to go somewhere. China, FED and Japan central banks are flooding markets with fiat money. Bitcoin and AI and commodities will win this round.
Thanks Marco Compass IAM growing I had listen to the voice in my head this is not a sprint this is a Marathon well IAM very proud this month my sixth year and I still have huge momentum more then day 1
How can interest rates at 4.75% be dangerously tight, especially when you consider that real rates are probably around 0. The truth is the Fed has created such a mess that now the entire system is dependent on negative real rates. A nation of capital consumption is one in decline, and no amount of button pushing by the fed or anyone else can fix it.
The problem of China is not only real estate but it is more political. The CCP decided to put a stop to economic freedom the day they started to go after Jack Ma and Alibaba. Add to that a centralized economic approach based on industrial policy and you have all the ingredients for a fantastic crash…and demographic also doesn’t help
My opinion is that China is not bailing out the stock market as we in the west are. They are dealing with the pain, the west continues to kick the can down the road. Or, china has been buying gold, while the US continues to print dollars.
Good commentary, although there are still plenty of folks out there saying 0.5% was too much. I think a key comment is made by C.H. Smiles below: "..now the entire system is dependent on negative real rates." This is why 35% of my wealth is in non bank vaulted allocated and segregated gold and silver and ANOTHER 25% in PM stocks.
Why no cappuccino after 11am? It's too early :)
A cuppa cappuccino after dinner is a nice low-cal substitute for dessert. But a big mug of steaming filter coffee beats any espresso drink any time of day or evening.
I am big fan of cappuccino and latte 😋
The issues China is facing are serious but we should not over-dramatize as we had a stock crash in 2004 and a real estate crash in 2008. Economies recover regardless where the public holds most of its assets. One thing I would have loved to see in that part is the big difference in frugality and saving habits compared to US consumers who just increase their credit card debts, deceiving the FED to believe the economy is strong based on consumption when everything, federal, state and private consumptions is debt financed.
To me what we are witnessing is a change from a bipolar world to a multi-polar world and that change is not smooth. The G7 is constantly adding fuel to the fire. Latest example is are the measures against Chinese Ev's. I predict that will backfire spectacularly.
Those in power want to protect it against those aiming to gain it (i.e. BRICS).
It will be interesting to observe.
no disrespect but It's a very lazy comparison saying Japan vs China are similar states. Thats the consensus view of most Western commentators. Look at Japan's GDP growth rate from bubble peak to now: average 1%. China is growing at 4 to 5% .
Government debt much less than Japan. Chinese household savings much higher than Japan etc
Chinese problem is far more serious than Japan because its root cause is political. Many Chinese cannot even withdraw their cash from banks. The CCP is covering lots of stuff so many Westerners don’t know the reality.
Increased money supply has to go somewhere. China, FED and Japan central banks are flooding markets with fiat money. Bitcoin and AI and commodities will win this round.
I've lived by no coffee after 11am after I heard you say that many years ago, and I have to say it's a great rule haha!
Great note Alf... what's the bbg ticker for the 1st chart? thx
Are you in the camp that thinks Chinese equities are uninvestable? Is China's slump like what Japan experienced?
Thanks Marco Compass IAM growing I had listen to the voice in my head this is not a sprint this is a Marathon well IAM very proud this month my sixth year and I still have huge momentum more then day 1