Really great article. I hope you occasionally continue to put out some free content, I’ll miss it when it goes behind the paywall (can’t afford it). But you do great work :)
very interesting as usual, I have a question though, if the BCE says that euro rates are going to raise to about 4% and stay there for a long time ( plus QT), how comes that in bce projections unemployment is 6.9 in 2023 and 6.8 in 2023? is it such a tightening of monetary policy possible without unemployment?
Shrinking reserves, shrinking tax receipts, while continuing to run huge deficits and with a duration of the federal debt ~ 58 months, being turned over at much higher rates. Not sure on the timing but this looks like an imminent debt death spiral.
Hi Alf, very interesting & timely as always, thx a lot. How do you think, this change will affect US treasuries, specially long yet ones? (I.e.: go down in sympathy or atract buyers?)
I certainly agree this was the most dramatic ECB meeting in history, at least the same as "whatever it takes." I also think that only a confirmed dove like Lagarde could have done this as if the ECB president was Holtzmann or Nigel, it would not have gone down nearly as well as the South of Europe would be screaming Germany is trying to destroy them. Seems like a Nixon to China moment.
Of course, it remains to be seen if she really does follow through!
Good morning Alfonso, thanks again for the great article. Looking very much forward to the Macro Compass platform starting in a couple weeks time. Question about the trade 2s10s flattener. Do you mean shorting both the Schatz and the Bund in this case and for Italy on the front end of the curve shorting the BTS and the back end shorting the BTP?
New to your website but have seen several great videos of your macro outlook on youtube.
I'm new when it comes to macro but I feel as if I already learned some important lessons watching your videos. Definitly also considering subrscribing to your paid service.
In light of Lagarde's speech may I ask what your outlook is for the Euro/Dollar in 2023? Should I be 'scared'of losing buying power against the dollar?
Currently 100% in Euros and feeling somewhat exposed while i'm trying to step up my macro game.
Really great article. I hope you occasionally continue to put out some free content, I’ll miss it when it goes behind the paywall (can’t afford it). But you do great work :)
very interesting as usual, I have a question though, if the BCE says that euro rates are going to raise to about 4% and stay there for a long time ( plus QT), how comes that in bce projections unemployment is 6.9 in 2023 and 6.8 in 2023? is it such a tightening of monetary policy possible without unemployment?
Hi Alfonso
I don't remember how I came across your content but I was captured by your writing and since I have been reading your newsletter...
I am a novice in Macro eco and I struggle to follow you always and will be more interested in taking a course before going further with subscription
Shrinking reserves, shrinking tax receipts, while continuing to run huge deficits and with a duration of the federal debt ~ 58 months, being turned over at much higher rates. Not sure on the timing but this looks like an imminent debt death spiral.
I wonder if they see it?
I hope Giorgia Meloni has subscribed to your service for next year.
She will need all the good advice she can get.
I assume you’ve covered your EURUSD short by now, am I right? 😉
Hi Alf, very interesting & timely as always, thx a lot. How do you think, this change will affect US treasuries, specially long yet ones? (I.e.: go down in sympathy or atract buyers?)
Francisco
In what way would a ‘‘reverse repo’’ facility ‘‘sterilize’’ QT as opposed to QE?
Great as usual Alf 👍 Buon Natale e Felice Anno Nuovo! Merry Christmas & Happy New Year!
Thanks for the analysis and guidance!
Look forward to learning from your more detailed guidance for the medium to longer term investor in 2023.
I certainly agree this was the most dramatic ECB meeting in history, at least the same as "whatever it takes." I also think that only a confirmed dove like Lagarde could have done this as if the ECB president was Holtzmann or Nigel, it would not have gone down nearly as well as the South of Europe would be screaming Germany is trying to destroy them. Seems like a Nixon to China moment.
Of course, it remains to be seen if she really does follow through!
Hi Alf, small question, you've written:
"But excess reserves will be shrinking, and hence banks (amongst the largest buyers of peripheral bonds) will be taking a more conservative stance"
Can you please clarify who'se excess reserves will be shrinking and why exactly?
Good morning Alfonso, thanks again for the great article. Looking very much forward to the Macro Compass platform starting in a couple weeks time. Question about the trade 2s10s flattener. Do you mean shorting both the Schatz and the Bund in this case and for Italy on the front end of the curve shorting the BTS and the back end shorting the BTP?
Alf,
Sooooooooooooo disappointed you are going to start charging for your news letter.
I thought this was for the novice and beginning investor, to help us understand the markets better.
https://finiche.substack.com/p/market-minutes-and-portfolio-update
Hello Alfonso,
New to your website but have seen several great videos of your macro outlook on youtube.
I'm new when it comes to macro but I feel as if I already learned some important lessons watching your videos. Definitly also considering subrscribing to your paid service.
In light of Lagarde's speech may I ask what your outlook is for the Euro/Dollar in 2023? Should I be 'scared'of losing buying power against the dollar?
Currently 100% in Euros and feeling somewhat exposed while i'm trying to step up my macro game.
Thanks, Tom