Crystal clear analysis. My take is for the years to come is do not try to anticipate the inflationary fluctuations, instead pinpoint the asset classes that are 1. "go with the flow", meaning that they exploit the waves of inflationary/disinflationary process and 2. have proven resilient over time.
Equity markets are not a reflection of the basic fundamental economy. The equity markets in the US in particular the Nasdaq and the tech high flyers are an output of (base money + QE ) x leverage and the US has $3.2Tn in excess reserves. Not to mention US Treasuries are down 3 years in a row now, obviously the tech stocks are the safe haven. US markets will continue to ignore economic downturns because of the amount of excess capital that still exists. Everyone knows that QE will begin again and the concentration of wealth will continue, for now equity markets have zero organic sellers left.
So disinflation now i.e. no recession? What happened to your "animal spirits"?
are you still bearish the market ?
Crystal clear analysis. My take is for the years to come is do not try to anticipate the inflationary fluctuations, instead pinpoint the asset classes that are 1. "go with the flow", meaning that they exploit the waves of inflationary/disinflationary process and 2. have proven resilient over time.
Listener ( a "me-too" typo ?) lol
Scare - city,
proof-reader /Listenor ?
Prediction of 1% in less than a year, do you infer "soft landing"/ mild recession?
Well structured look at one if the ket LT macro trends. Well done.
How do you explain what happened in Japan where the weak demographics was more disinflationary?
Equity markets are not a reflection of the basic fundamental economy. The equity markets in the US in particular the Nasdaq and the tech high flyers are an output of (base money + QE ) x leverage and the US has $3.2Tn in excess reserves. Not to mention US Treasuries are down 3 years in a row now, obviously the tech stocks are the safe haven. US markets will continue to ignore economic downturns because of the amount of excess capital that still exists. Everyone knows that QE will begin again and the concentration of wealth will continue, for now equity markets have zero organic sellers left.
Thanks