Hi Alf. I'm considering your Long Term Investor subscription, and I have a couple of questions about it.
1. Does the currently available discount apply to the first year only? Or will I be able to renew at the discounted rate in future years? (I expect its one year only. )
2. Will the ETF Portfolio recommendations allow for different investor locations? As I'm in the UK, I can only buy ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. If you recommend a US ETF that doesn't have an equivalent that's available in the UK (many don't), will you recommend an alternative for UK investors?
Very good analysis, but a question that may alter some of your thesis; what happens if the supply of labor shrinks further, faster than the demand so wage pressures remain high and inflation remains firmer than your forecast? Can the Fed cut rates into that scenario? I only ask because supply of labor is clearly a continuing problem, very possibly a structural one, and the idea of a recession when people aren't losing their jobs is harder to conceive.
Very consistent piece, bravo Alf. the real question probably now becomes the depth and duration of the recession and potential wild cards. Generally the private sector balance sheet doesn't look too bad (net of some RE excesses), it is the governments' that is more troubling. Then there are the geopolitical issues like the Russia - Ukraine was (relevant for energy) and the Chinese overall economic and political developments (this is very worrying as far as global economy stability is concerned). Ciao Daniele
Hey Alf, another great article! I have one question regarding what you said about USD's strength in the early 2000s recession versus its weakness during the GFC. Would you be able to explain some of your reasonings behind this, and what this could mean for the USD in 2023 when you are anticipating another recession?
Dec 4, 2022·edited Dec 4, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Really love your newsletter Alf. Do you allow a few people (if any) to pool the money to buy one subscription? If yes, we can post to see how many people want to contribute to the pool. also if you have interest in this idea please reply. we can let Alf know. Thanks
great write up Alf! i think this is one of your most clear concise write up yet. i couldn't agree more with the tooic. i follow several macro writers and podcasts and am not suprised that the job market is not strong. i am 100% positive the jobs data the government data is absolute hot garbage to just support there goal of putting forth a strong economy picture. i have been surprised by the macroeconomic commentators who base there outlook and prediction based on this data, maybe they do because this is what the fed will use to make decisions? but what i believe will really happen is other indicators will cause them to act and not their phony jobs reports. probably things like liquidity in the financial markets,
the real estate market falling, and industrial production falling and the closing of buainesses.
Great report, thank you. I can't figure out why the participation rate is so low and yet some folks are working multiple jobs, and I read about a labor shortage. I get it, some people decided to simply retire early during Covid. Are disabilities from Covid treatments as high as I think they might be? Are some qualified workers (ie., medical professions) staying out due to vax mandates? It just seems like something is missing...
Brilliant as always Alf. Thanks!
I’m wondering if you would consider a monthly subscription just to the newsletter? Times are hard for some my friend.
Hi Alf. I'm considering your Long Term Investor subscription, and I have a couple of questions about it.
1. Does the currently available discount apply to the first year only? Or will I be able to renew at the discounted rate in future years? (I expect its one year only. )
2. Will the ETF Portfolio recommendations allow for different investor locations? As I'm in the UK, I can only buy ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. If you recommend a US ETF that doesn't have an equivalent that's available in the UK (many don't), will you recommend an alternative for UK investors?
Thanks.
Very good analysis, but a question that may alter some of your thesis; what happens if the supply of labor shrinks further, faster than the demand so wage pressures remain high and inflation remains firmer than your forecast? Can the Fed cut rates into that scenario? I only ask because supply of labor is clearly a continuing problem, very possibly a structural one, and the idea of a recession when people aren't losing their jobs is harder to conceive.
Any chance you could give your early subscribers a peak at your portfolios before January? Sounds like you're adding bonds to one or both portfolios?
Wonder if you would be able to analyze which sectors are more vulnerable to layoffs over others?
Very consistent piece, bravo Alf. the real question probably now becomes the depth and duration of the recession and potential wild cards. Generally the private sector balance sheet doesn't look too bad (net of some RE excesses), it is the governments' that is more troubling. Then there are the geopolitical issues like the Russia - Ukraine was (relevant for energy) and the Chinese overall economic and political developments (this is very worrying as far as global economy stability is concerned). Ciao Daniele
I think this was your best insight to date!!! Let me know what you thought of me previous reply?
YOU ARE NO LONGER MY FRIEND IF YOU THINK RATE HIKES AFFECT THE ECONOMY IMMEDIATELY.
Thanks, Alf. You buried the headline - the US govt asked you to poke holes in their NFP data??
Hey Alf, another great article! I have one question regarding what you said about USD's strength in the early 2000s recession versus its weakness during the GFC. Would you be able to explain some of your reasonings behind this, and what this could mean for the USD in 2023 when you are anticipating another recession?
and why no discussion of JOLTS--is the data there as stale as some analysts maintain?
Very insightful. I guess this means the bottom isn't in like some people are saying.
Really love your newsletter Alf. Do you allow a few people (if any) to pool the money to buy one subscription? If yes, we can post to see how many people want to contribute to the pool. also if you have interest in this idea please reply. we can let Alf know. Thanks
Nice dissection of the US Labout Market
great write up Alf! i think this is one of your most clear concise write up yet. i couldn't agree more with the tooic. i follow several macro writers and podcasts and am not suprised that the job market is not strong. i am 100% positive the jobs data the government data is absolute hot garbage to just support there goal of putting forth a strong economy picture. i have been surprised by the macroeconomic commentators who base there outlook and prediction based on this data, maybe they do because this is what the fed will use to make decisions? but what i believe will really happen is other indicators will cause them to act and not their phony jobs reports. probably things like liquidity in the financial markets,
the real estate market falling, and industrial production falling and the closing of buainesses.
Very good Alf. • Equity indexes dropped an additional ~10%, but defensive sectors (e.g. utilities, consumer staples, healthcare) held up much better;
Are you implying a further 10% drop from the Oct bottom or from current levels?
Great report, thank you. I can't figure out why the participation rate is so low and yet some folks are working multiple jobs, and I read about a labor shortage. I get it, some people decided to simply retire early during Covid. Are disabilities from Covid treatments as high as I think they might be? Are some qualified workers (ie., medical professions) staying out due to vax mandates? It just seems like something is missing...