Hi Alf. I'm considering your Long Term Investor subscription, and I have a couple of questions about it.
1. Does the currently available discount apply to the first year only? Or will I be able to renew at the discounted rate in future years? (I expect its one year only. )
2. Will the ETF Portfolio recommendations allow for different investor locations? As I'm in the UK, I can only buy ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. If you recommend a US ETF that doesn't have an equivalent that's available in the UK (many don't), will you recommend an alternative for UK investors?
Very good analysis, but a question that may alter some of your thesis; what happens if the supply of labor shrinks further, faster than the demand so wage pressures remain high and inflation remains firmer than your forecast? Can the Fed cut rates into that scenario? I only ask because supply of labor is clearly a continuing problem, very possibly a structural one, and the idea of a recession when people aren't losing their jobs is harder to conceive.
That's a fair point but a shrinking labor force might more be a structural macro driver than a cyclical one - a recession where earnings shrink always generates job cuts cyclically speaking
Very consistent piece, bravo Alf. the real question probably now becomes the depth and duration of the recession and potential wild cards. Generally the private sector balance sheet doesn't look too bad (net of some RE excesses), it is the governments' that is more troubling. Then there are the geopolitical issues like the Russia - Ukraine was (relevant for energy) and the Chinese overall economic and political developments (this is very worrying as far as global economy stability is concerned). Ciao Daniele
Hey Alf, another great article! I have one question regarding what you said about USD's strength in the early 2000s recession versus its weakness during the GFC. Would you be able to explain some of your reasonings behind this, and what this could mean for the USD in 2023 when you are anticipating another recession?
Really love your newsletter Alf. Do you allow a few people (if any) to pool the money to buy one subscription? If yes, we can post to see how many people want to contribute to the pool. also if you have interest in this idea please reply. we can let Alf know. Thanks
great write up Alf! i think this is one of your most clear concise write up yet. i couldn't agree more with the tooic. i follow several macro writers and podcasts and am not suprised that the job market is not strong. i am 100% positive the jobs data the government data is absolute hot garbage to just support there goal of putting forth a strong economy picture. i have been surprised by the macroeconomic commentators who base there outlook and prediction based on this data, maybe they do because this is what the fed will use to make decisions? but what i believe will really happen is other indicators will cause them to act and not their phony jobs reports. probably things like liquidity in the financial markets,
the real estate market falling, and industrial production falling and the closing of buainesses.
Great report, thank you. I can't figure out why the participation rate is so low and yet some folks are working multiple jobs, and I read about a labor shortage. I get it, some people decided to simply retire early during Covid. Are disabilities from Covid treatments as high as I think they might be? Are some qualified workers (ie., medical professions) staying out due to vax mandates? It just seems like something is missing...
Brilliant as always Alf. Thanks!
I’m wondering if you would consider a monthly subscription just to the newsletter? Times are hard for some my friend.
I understand that, Rich - and with a bit of patience you'll see that option popping up :)
Thank you Alf, appreciate your work as always.
Hi Alf. I'm considering your Long Term Investor subscription, and I have a couple of questions about it.
1. Does the currently available discount apply to the first year only? Or will I be able to renew at the discounted rate in future years? (I expect its one year only. )
2. Will the ETF Portfolio recommendations allow for different investor locations? As I'm in the UK, I can only buy ETFs on the London Stock Exchange. If you recommend a US ETF that doesn't have an equivalent that's available in the UK (many don't), will you recommend an alternative for UK investors?
Thanks.
Hi Richard!
1. It applies to the first year only, but early bird subscribers will have a preferential treatment when renewals come
2. Yes, it definitely will. I will try and make sure the ETF Portfolio can be implemented from different locations, including the UK
Thanks, Alf.
Very good analysis, but a question that may alter some of your thesis; what happens if the supply of labor shrinks further, faster than the demand so wage pressures remain high and inflation remains firmer than your forecast? Can the Fed cut rates into that scenario? I only ask because supply of labor is clearly a continuing problem, very possibly a structural one, and the idea of a recession when people aren't losing their jobs is harder to conceive.
That's a fair point but a shrinking labor force might more be a structural macro driver than a cyclical one - a recession where earnings shrink always generates job cuts cyclically speaking
Any chance you could give your early subscribers a peak at your portfolios before January? Sounds like you're adding bonds to one or both portfolios?
Sounds like I did over the last few weeks, yes.
But don't worry, there is a lot ahead of us in the TMC macro learning journey in 2023 :)
Wonder if you would be able to analyze which sectors are more vulnerable to layoffs over others?
Great idea, I'll look into it
non-profitable start-ups and companies that may be growing revenue but have no profitable business model .
Very consistent piece, bravo Alf. the real question probably now becomes the depth and duration of the recession and potential wild cards. Generally the private sector balance sheet doesn't look too bad (net of some RE excesses), it is the governments' that is more troubling. Then there are the geopolitical issues like the Russia - Ukraine was (relevant for energy) and the Chinese overall economic and political developments (this is very worrying as far as global economy stability is concerned). Ciao Daniele
Ciao Daniele, and thanks for your always insightful contributions!
I think this was your best insight to date!!! Let me know what you thought of me previous reply?
YOU ARE NO LONGER MY FRIEND IF YOU THINK RATE HIKES AFFECT THE ECONOMY IMMEDIATELY.
Thanks, Alf. You buried the headline - the US govt asked you to poke holes in their NFP data??
Yep basically.
That's savage!
Hey Alf, another great article! I have one question regarding what you said about USD's strength in the early 2000s recession versus its weakness during the GFC. Would you be able to explain some of your reasonings behind this, and what this could mean for the USD in 2023 when you are anticipating another recession?
Oh you're gonna love the article coming online in a few minutes!
and why no discussion of JOLTS--is the data there as stale as some analysts maintain?
Skipped it for length purposes :)
Very insightful. I guess this means the bottom isn't in like some people are saying.
Yep, I think so
Really love your newsletter Alf. Do you allow a few people (if any) to pool the money to buy one subscription? If yes, we can post to see how many people want to contribute to the pool. also if you have interest in this idea please reply. we can let Alf know. Thanks
Hi Larry, thanks for the kind words!
1 subscription = 1 subscription :)
Nice dissection of the US Labout Market
Glad you liked it, Javier!
great write up Alf! i think this is one of your most clear concise write up yet. i couldn't agree more with the tooic. i follow several macro writers and podcasts and am not suprised that the job market is not strong. i am 100% positive the jobs data the government data is absolute hot garbage to just support there goal of putting forth a strong economy picture. i have been surprised by the macroeconomic commentators who base there outlook and prediction based on this data, maybe they do because this is what the fed will use to make decisions? but what i believe will really happen is other indicators will cause them to act and not their phony jobs reports. probably things like liquidity in the financial markets,
the real estate market falling, and industrial production falling and the closing of buainesses.
Thanks for your kind words!
Very good Alf. • Equity indexes dropped an additional ~10%, but defensive sectors (e.g. utilities, consumer staples, healthcare) held up much better;
Are you implying a further 10% drop from the Oct bottom or from current levels?
I expect the equity market to ultimately bottom in the 3200-3000 area next year
Great report, thank you. I can't figure out why the participation rate is so low and yet some folks are working multiple jobs, and I read about a labor shortage. I get it, some people decided to simply retire early during Covid. Are disabilities from Covid treatments as high as I think they might be? Are some qualified workers (ie., medical professions) staying out due to vax mandates? It just seems like something is missing...
Long-Covid and early retirements account for most of it, yes