Bravo Alf!! Good luck with the podcast. What do you think about investments in the Uranium sector? I’m positioned since last year and the war could be the trigger for an uptrend
Thank you for good work. Many people wait for a recession and an equity drawdown. Fed rate hikes are already priced. So why do you think that we should avoid high beta ? If the market has already priced rate hikes, and Fed makes hikes, why would the stocks fall ? If Fed can't make rate hikes so the stocks will rally, what do I miss ? Or by saying avoid risky assets, you mean only small caps ? Do you think this is a good time to enter SP500, Nasdaq growth stocks if our horizon is longer than 6 months or 1 year ? Besides, your four quadrants doesn't mention small or large caps for the equities, it would be better if it mentioned.
We haven't witnessed yet the ''earnings growth scare'' I expect in Q2-Q3, and on top of it markets are now pricing term premium into the bond curve by making also long-term real borrowing costs more expensive for an overleveraged private sector.
Time is necessary for some of this restrictiveness to be evident in economic data, hence I think we haven't seen the ''worst'' yet for risk assets in 2022.
Excited about the new podcast! These hosts asking great traders about their best trade idea is gonna make it the most practical, educational and entertaining finance podcasts out there. Collaborating with Blockworks is smart too, they are producing amazing content already.
As a younger person thinking about strategies of saving for retirement, I would be also interested what ideas do market veterans have for long-term (20-30 years) portfolios. This kind of fits the definition of a best trade idea, just a longer timeframe.
This is an excellent piece and really look forward to the podcast. Btw after living in Milan for some years I realize that I really enjoy the Italian accent.
Please publish on “stitcher” too. Looking forward to the Podcast launching! Concrete ways of implementing macro with appropriate risk management are sorely missing for retail investors. Thank you for doing this!
I have searched for the show at my iPhone, but the administrator is has turned off the explicit content. Is it a show based on paid-subscription? I do not understand what is it going on here. You are advertising your podcast but not allowing to listen to it, really!
Hi Ibrahim, have you tried again? The show is free, and you can listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, the Blockworks Macro Youtube channel and soon on Google Podcast too
Hi Alfanso, I have tried many times, but there is no access on the basis of the known reason. Whenever you set the podcast really free, please let me know. Thank you
Hi Alf. What rate on the US 10 year bond would indicate a possible shift in expectations in the bond market? I've heard several commentators stating that they are expecting the 10 year to start surging higher at some point, and then to follow a rapid series of increases marking a potential crisis in equity markets. Do you have any thoughts on how likely this may be? Thanks!
Thanks for the reply Alfonso, greatly appreciated. In terms of the impact of inflation on bond yield expectations, is it correct that higher inflation expectations would translate into higher bond yield expectations? Based on my understanding this would make sense as lenders would seek higher interest rates to compensate for loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Is this a correct conclusion?
It's not always the case, David. In theory you are right, but if monetary policy is very accommodative and/or real growth is projected to be very low, nominal yields tend to rise less than inflation expectations.
In this environment, monetary policy is getting tighter fast so real yields are rising.
Dear Alf, really fantastic sharp judgements on the key macro events unfolding, also clear language and logic reasoning for non-experts. bravo.. I would love listening to your announced podcast. and if you open your long-only or other portfolio for free - you are our jesus :)
Really looking forward to the podcast/youtube. Am hoping that you'll include a regular feature tracking the subsequent performance of your (and your guests') strategies so we can get a real world look at what really works vs. what sounds good.
Bravo Alf!! Good luck with the podcast. What do you think about investments in the Uranium sector? I’m positioned since last year and the war could be the trigger for an uptrend
I don't have a view on Uranium, Walter. Need to learn more about it :)
Thank you for good work. Many people wait for a recession and an equity drawdown. Fed rate hikes are already priced. So why do you think that we should avoid high beta ? If the market has already priced rate hikes, and Fed makes hikes, why would the stocks fall ? If Fed can't make rate hikes so the stocks will rally, what do I miss ? Or by saying avoid risky assets, you mean only small caps ? Do you think this is a good time to enter SP500, Nasdaq growth stocks if our horizon is longer than 6 months or 1 year ? Besides, your four quadrants doesn't mention small or large caps for the equities, it would be better if it mentioned.
We haven't witnessed yet the ''earnings growth scare'' I expect in Q2-Q3, and on top of it markets are now pricing term premium into the bond curve by making also long-term real borrowing costs more expensive for an overleveraged private sector.
Time is necessary for some of this restrictiveness to be evident in economic data, hence I think we haven't seen the ''worst'' yet for risk assets in 2022.
Thank you. By the way, good job on the podcast too. I do like the format. :)
Glad to read this!
Very well written, clear, succinct and concrete thoughts. Thank you Alf.
My pleasure, Sandeep
Excited about the new podcast! These hosts asking great traders about their best trade idea is gonna make it the most practical, educational and entertaining finance podcasts out there. Collaborating with Blockworks is smart too, they are producing amazing content already.
As a younger person thinking about strategies of saving for retirement, I would be also interested what ideas do market veterans have for long-term (20-30 years) portfolios. This kind of fits the definition of a best trade idea, just a longer timeframe.
Regards,
MK
Thanks for your kind words, Miroslav!
This is an excellent piece and really look forward to the podcast. Btw after living in Milan for some years I realize that I really enjoy the Italian accent.
Ahah thanks, I can't do anything about it unfortunately anyway :)
Excellent article as always; looking forward to the youtube/ podcast.
First episode out!
Please publish on “stitcher” too. Looking forward to the Podcast launching! Concrete ways of implementing macro with appropriate risk management are sorely missing for retail investors. Thank you for doing this!
Yep, and no ''to the moon'' statements. Measured takes on global macro with risk management always on the radar :)
Congratulations on the new podcast, Alf, Happy to sign up. I am an ex ING guy like you. Wish you all the best. Cheers, Toon
Hey Toon :) thanks for the kind words
Hi Alf,
I have searched for the show at my iPhone, but the administrator is has turned off the explicit content. Is it a show based on paid-subscription? I do not understand what is it going on here. You are advertising your podcast but not allowing to listen to it, really!
Hi Ibrahim, have you tried again? The show is free, and you can listen to it on Apple Podcast, Spotify, the Blockworks Macro Youtube channel and soon on Google Podcast too
Hi Alfanso, I have tried many times, but there is no access on the basis of the known reason. Whenever you set the podcast really free, please let me know. Thank you
Hi Alf. What rate on the US 10 year bond would indicate a possible shift in expectations in the bond market? I've heard several commentators stating that they are expecting the 10 year to start surging higher at some point, and then to follow a rapid series of increases marking a potential crisis in equity markets. Do you have any thoughts on how likely this may be? Thanks!
Hi David, I don't believe 10y bond yields can move much higher than they are now. If they were, it would be very restrictive for risk assets.
Thanks for the reply Alfonso, greatly appreciated. In terms of the impact of inflation on bond yield expectations, is it correct that higher inflation expectations would translate into higher bond yield expectations? Based on my understanding this would make sense as lenders would seek higher interest rates to compensate for loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Is this a correct conclusion?
It's not always the case, David. In theory you are right, but if monetary policy is very accommodative and/or real growth is projected to be very low, nominal yields tend to rise less than inflation expectations.
In this environment, monetary policy is getting tighter fast so real yields are rising.
Thanks Alf! Very interesting stuff. We didn't study bond markets much in my economics degree, so I very much appreciate your insights.
Great to Hear your Podcast is hitting the Airwaves
Thanks!
Dear Alf, really fantastic sharp judgements on the key macro events unfolding, also clear language and logic reasoning for non-experts. bravo.. I would love listening to your announced podcast. and if you open your long-only or other portfolio for free - you are our jesus :)
Thanks for the kind words! The first episode of the podcast is out
Thanks alot Alf really good stuff here
are u looking at inflation swaps and interest rate swaps for inflation exp an trminal rate measermets?
Yep, correct
Really looking forward to the podcast/youtube. Am hoping that you'll include a regular feature tracking the subsequent performance of your (and your guests') strategies so we can get a real world look at what really works vs. what sounds good.
Yes, we will have a P&L tracking sheet! :)
Excited for the podcast!
First episode is out! :)