Can't stomach another $350 subscription this year on this grad school budget after buying Lyn's earlier with the expectation that your newsletter would remain free.
QE is a mechanism to allow the UST to deficit spend. So indirectly through the government, it is putting real dollars into the economy. I don't know why this isn't acknowledged more often.
I'm in your camp. I think it's more to do with supply than anything. I wrote a short article, arguing that we need better language to describe price hikes. A way to separate between structural issues/monetary inflation
Very good summary. It took me more than 1 year to understand what Jeff Snider is trying to say, just because we are all using carelessly defined words. Efficiency, Inefficiency, Inflation, Deflation - good proposal to avoid emotional discussions based on misunderstandings.
Right. And I don't particularly care what the words are, but I really think we need new language. You even see it in Jeff's videos! One second he'll be saying there is no inflation (monetary), then two minutes later he's talking about the inflation we're seeing (breakdown of supply chains).
I commend you for learning to understand Jeff in only a year! I daresay it took me longer than that to get a full grasp on all the topics he covers.
These are mostly aggregate measures of bank deposits.
They are ok, but as I explained in the article bank deposits held by the non-financial private sector (us, the people) are very different from bank deposits held by a pension fund.
Thanks for the article Alf. You seem to be saying that the pandemic QE program of '20/21 that purchased assets from non-banks for the first time, creating massive commercial deposits in parallel with reserves, those deposits are not the same as other commercial deposits? This is the first time I've heard of deposits that are "de facto reserves". My understanding is much of the reserves "cloned" into commercial deposits from non bank asset purchases went straight into stocks, driving the most recent stock price bubble.
Yes indeed, not all bank deposits are the same. The ones you own can be inflationary as you can spend them to buy goods and services.
The ones PIMCO or a pension fund owns can only be recycled into other financial assets, and hence are asset-price inflationary but not directly real-economy inflationary.
In some cases CBs really struggled to understand reserves are not used for lending (See Bernanke).
They do QE for other reasons linked to financial market stability and volatility suppression - I explained that in some other articles, go have a look :)
That's why I'd gladly read the continuation of that post to give more light and history then what for governments are pushing banks for more risky assents and how they see the goals of QE and what they really achieve with that. And how and where you personally value it's efficacy.
CBs use QE to create inflation so the collateral that borrowers post is more likely to help keep banks solvent, thereby enabling banks to be more aggressive, increasing their earnings over what they would be in a free market.
Thanks for another great article! Ever since watching your Master Class with Axia Futures back in October, it's really been enlightening to learn more money and how it circulates within the real economy and the financial sector.
As you mentioned, everything we learned about this back in college is literally upside down or overly simplified.
I have to admit that I'm still playing catch up with the knowledge you've been sharing but it's been a great experience so far. Really glad to have found TMC!
Hi Alf, so first the safest to store is "at self"? Dollar Cash, gold coins at home, bitcoin cold storage..(?) Ofc a lot of cash does not work anymore, and according your model its not the time yet for gold & btc, which for now could be seen as insurance & risk on assets. So where is our digital money the safest? With the USA (FDIC/T Bills), yes maybe in this moment, but, what would happen if the CBDC process ends with a merge/bridge of the FED (Central bank) and the Government (Finance Department)? What if Financial Money and Commercial Money merge and will be programmable? As it seems we are slowly heading there (reading FED-Coin papers/trials running now with 12 banks & listening to "ideas" of Janet Yellen Treasurie liquidity solutions). I appreciate your guidance is always focused "on the now world", and this maybe maybe a bit to "ahead/conspiracy", but as Im paying now 995 euro for 2023, I dare to ask:), what's your opinion...? Thnx 4 all!
Great article! I have a question. What about the "leakage" of financial money in the form of withdrawals from RoE, bonuses, etc. that enter the real economy (buying real economy assets and services)? Maybe I missed a point. Thank you!
Hey Alf, if I was interested in upgrading from the first tier "long term investor" subscription into the second tier "all around investor" subscription, what steps do I follow?
I already paid for the first tier subscription and would only be interested in upgrading if paying the difference between the two using the TMC discount code
Can't stomach another $350 subscription this year on this grad school budget after buying Lyn's earlier with the expectation that your newsletter would remain free.
Your podcast/youtube will keep up though right?
Will miss this until next year.
Will be waiting for you to join, Willus :)
The podcast with Andreas will remain free, the rest will go behind a paywall (and there will be much more content!)
Get outta Grad school and start trading!
QE is a mechanism to allow the UST to deficit spend. So indirectly through the government, it is putting real dollars into the economy. I don't know why this isn't acknowledged more often.
Hi Cliff!
If QE runs without large fiscal deficits and/or private sector leveraging its balance sheet, you won't get any real-economy money creation.
Ask Japan.
Yes thanks for the reply!! As it pertains to the US I take to heart your first word; IF!!
What does the process look like when QE leads to real-dollars in the economy? Does the FED every directly buy gov bonds?
Fantastic Alf! You are the best macro-teacher around! Thanks
Thank you!
Great article. Did demand explode wirh the extra money. ? Or was the inflation due to supply shortages. I’m 80% supply.
Example used cars up 50%. Or new cars up double digits. New cars were impossible to get.
Demand literally exploded.
Supply bottlenecks came on top.
I'm in your camp. I think it's more to do with supply than anything. I wrote a short article, arguing that we need better language to describe price hikes. A way to separate between structural issues/monetary inflation
https://theunhedgedcapitalist.substack.com/p/why-we-need-new-words-to-describe
Very good summary. It took me more than 1 year to understand what Jeff Snider is trying to say, just because we are all using carelessly defined words. Efficiency, Inefficiency, Inflation, Deflation - good proposal to avoid emotional discussions based on misunderstandings.
Right. And I don't particularly care what the words are, but I really think we need new language. You even see it in Jeff's videos! One second he'll be saying there is no inflation (monetary), then two minutes later he's talking about the inflation we're seeing (breakdown of supply chains).
I commend you for learning to understand Jeff in only a year! I daresay it took me longer than that to get a full grasp on all the topics he covers.
Jeff goes a bit too far with the definition of inflation.
Nice article once again. How does this relate to M1, M2, M3 etcetera?
These are mostly aggregate measures of bank deposits.
They are ok, but as I explained in the article bank deposits held by the non-financial private sector (us, the people) are very different from bank deposits held by a pension fund.
M2 incorporates all together.
Thanks for the article Alf. You seem to be saying that the pandemic QE program of '20/21 that purchased assets from non-banks for the first time, creating massive commercial deposits in parallel with reserves, those deposits are not the same as other commercial deposits? This is the first time I've heard of deposits that are "de facto reserves". My understanding is much of the reserves "cloned" into commercial deposits from non bank asset purchases went straight into stocks, driving the most recent stock price bubble.
Hi John!
Yes indeed, not all bank deposits are the same. The ones you own can be inflationary as you can spend them to buy goods and services.
The ones PIMCO or a pension fund owns can only be recycled into other financial assets, and hence are asset-price inflationary but not directly real-economy inflationary.
So either one:
1. CBs want to create asset bubble with QE...why?
2. CBs are stupid and believe QE will create lending (does not).
Which is correct 1 or 2?
In some cases CBs really struggled to understand reserves are not used for lending (See Bernanke).
They do QE for other reasons linked to financial market stability and volatility suppression - I explained that in some other articles, go have a look :)
That's why I'd gladly read the continuation of that post to give more light and history then what for governments are pushing banks for more risky assents and how they see the goals of QE and what they really achieve with that. And how and where you personally value it's efficacy.
CBs use QE to create inflation so the collateral that borrowers post is more likely to help keep banks solvent, thereby enabling banks to be more aggressive, increasing their earnings over what they would be in a free market.
Thanks for another great article! Ever since watching your Master Class with Axia Futures back in October, it's really been enlightening to learn more money and how it circulates within the real economy and the financial sector.
As you mentioned, everything we learned about this back in college is literally upside down or overly simplified.
I have to admit that I'm still playing catch up with the knowledge you've been sharing but it's been a great experience so far. Really glad to have found TMC!
Such a nice feedback, thanks!
Great post. Just moneyed up the new platform. Look forward to your 2023 content!
Thank you!
What will be your long-term ETF portfolios time frame, Alf?
6-12 months Leyla, so I expect dynamic adjustments every few weeks but definitely not every day
Hi Alf, so first the safest to store is "at self"? Dollar Cash, gold coins at home, bitcoin cold storage..(?) Ofc a lot of cash does not work anymore, and according your model its not the time yet for gold & btc, which for now could be seen as insurance & risk on assets. So where is our digital money the safest? With the USA (FDIC/T Bills), yes maybe in this moment, but, what would happen if the CBDC process ends with a merge/bridge of the FED (Central bank) and the Government (Finance Department)? What if Financial Money and Commercial Money merge and will be programmable? As it seems we are slowly heading there (reading FED-Coin papers/trials running now with 12 banks & listening to "ideas" of Janet Yellen Treasurie liquidity solutions). I appreciate your guidance is always focused "on the now world", and this maybe maybe a bit to "ahead/conspiracy", but as Im paying now 995 euro for 2023, I dare to ask:), what's your opinion...? Thnx 4 all!
At the moment, short-dated T-bills are the best risk/reward option for the safety of money.
Your points on CBDC are super valid and I will cover them in one of my next articles.
Thx, really really appreciate your time to comment. Will never allow anybody in my vicinity to eat pizza with pineapple anymore!
Why is the benefit of financial institutions accumulating reserves? What can they use reserves for?
They don't have a choice, Gregory :)
When the Central Bank does QE, they create reserves and buy bonds with it.
These reserves end up in the commercial banking system, so some bank MUST own them at any point in time.
They are mostly used to settle transactions between banks.
So commercial banks are obligated to sell their reserves for bonds?
Alf - Your content and perspectives are worth every penny. Glad to be aboard; haters will complain if it's $5/month.
Thanks! :)
Great article! I have a question. What about the "leakage" of financial money in the form of withdrawals from RoE, bonuses, etc. that enter the real economy (buying real economy assets and services)? Maybe I missed a point. Thank you!
Great question!
I'll explain all these details in my first macro course on The Macro Compass platform
I believe your Global Impulse graph is one of the most tools I've ever seen.
Thank you!
Hey Alf, if I was interested in upgrading from the first tier "long term investor" subscription into the second tier "all around investor" subscription, what steps do I follow?
I already paid for the first tier subscription and would only be interested in upgrading if paying the difference between the two using the TMC discount code
Hi Hunter!
That's possible and the discount code will be preserved.
Send an email to customer@themacrocompass.com and the team will help you