Jul 14, 2022·edited Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Great article as always professor Alf!
I'd like to understand more about the final point regarding the dollar rally. I'm not an FX trader but I'd like to understand the macro better for USD. What does happen when the party stops?
Amazing stuff. Looking forward to attending your macro university!
For readers interested in bond price movement v. interest rate changes, and concepts of duration and convesxity, I thought you might like to read this 4-page from blackrock.
I’m sure this means I’m dumb, but what do you mean by “go fishing”? My guess is be willing to buy if it drops substantially or just “buy opportunistically”, but I’m not really sure and couldn’t get it from context. Thanks!
I like to check in on Raoul Pal and you and than listen in to all the different perspectives I get from who Wealthion brings on. Lance Robert’s provides good overall insights and tactical portfolio ideas I respect.
When QT picks up, shouldn’t interest rate volatility increase and the yield curve steepen as investors start to demanding higher yield to hold longer dated bonds? So wouldn’t this mean long bonds will underperform “this time” under that scenario. Thanks, great writing.
Have you looked at the ratio copper/gold by McClellan, correlation with the 10 year notes it's indicating the a droop for notes in the short near term.
Hi Alf! I’ve got a couple questions to which I’d really appreciate your response. 1) Since a bank creates a loan or deposit from thin air, and not from their own assets, why do people say that banks make money from only the interest on loans, and not the entirety of the loan repayment (principal plus interest)? Shouldn’t the assets of the bank ultimately increase by the principal of the loan they make plus the interest of the loan? 2) And consequently, also, if fractional reserve banking doesn’t occur at all, but rather banks have the right to create assets freely, shouldn’t bank-runs be very unlikely to ever occur, not a probable hazard that necessitates a “lender of last resort”?
A) because when that loan is repaid, the principal is destroyed
B) correct, and they are indeed very rare; they mostly happen when banks have created too many loans without the adequate amount of liquid assets to back a quick rush of deposit withdrawals. The central bank can always provide reserves but it generally would require some sort of collateral against it.
Great article Alf. Really appreciate your views on the major asset classes. That’s really helpful, and also appreciate you give ideas for European ETFs.
Great article as always professor Alf!
I'd like to understand more about the final point regarding the dollar rally. I'm not an FX trader but I'd like to understand the macro better for USD. What does happen when the party stops?
Amazing stuff. Looking forward to attending your macro university!
Thanks, Gene! I should maybe cover the role of the USD more in depth
For readers interested in bond price movement v. interest rate changes, and concepts of duration and convesxity, I thought you might like to read this 4-page from blackrock.
https://www.blackrock.com/fp/documents/understanding_duration.pdf
I’m sure this means I’m dumb, but what do you mean by “go fishing”? My guess is be willing to buy if it drops substantially or just “buy opportunistically”, but I’m not really sure and couldn’t get it from context. Thanks!
Hi! I should have specified indeed :)
Go fishing means: don’t look at the screen and do something else until the setup shows a better risk/reward
Thank you sir! Your online education is the best.
Welcome!
Rain check. Pass. No taking a position. Fishing rather than speculating.
At least that’s how I read it.
I think it means stay out of the market and enjoy other things in life. I don't think it implies 'fishing' for opportunities, or "bottom fishing".
Alf means with "go fishing" do nothing!
Alf explained what he means by “go fishing” in a recent YouTube video.
Agreed. It is very unclear what exactly he means by "go fishing".
Hi Alf, love your work. Would you mind doing a more in depth podcast on the dollar, would love to hear your thoughts on it.
Good idea :)
What happens when the party stops?
If Central Banks are still tightening, H12022 again but on steroids.
Does the dollar milkshake theory ring a bell?
VIX to the moon.
This is a great piece Alf! Thank you!
Welcome, Andrea!
Great perspective given succinctly and with real actionable recommendations. Best out there
Thanks, JW! Who would be the other top 3 macro research and portfolio constructions providers you think?
I like to check in on Raoul Pal and you and than listen in to all the different perspectives I get from who Wealthion brings on. Lance Robert’s provides good overall insights and tactical portfolio ideas I respect.
:)
Also remember on this Bastille Day nothing but Macron matters ....
Eheh :)
Here's a great rendition of 'Nothing Else Matters" by an all-women Polish group.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09NqLjHJtGQ
Thank you for sharing your views, Alf.
My pleasure!
When QT picks up, shouldn’t interest rate volatility increase and the yield curve steepen as investors start to demanding higher yield to hold longer dated bonds? So wouldn’t this mean long bonds will underperform “this time” under that scenario. Thanks, great writing.
Hi Jon! The answer to this question is in an article about QT I wrote some months ago. Check it out!
Keep up the good stuff. These last two articles were A-grade.
Thanks, Levy! What did you dislike from previous articles?
I like especially "An Overview of Macro Asset Classes" part. Very appreciated Alf.
My pleasure!
Have you looked at the ratio copper/gold by McClellan, correlation with the 10 year notes it's indicating the a droop for notes in the short near term.
Yes indeed
Hi Alf! I’ve got a couple questions to which I’d really appreciate your response. 1) Since a bank creates a loan or deposit from thin air, and not from their own assets, why do people say that banks make money from only the interest on loans, and not the entirety of the loan repayment (principal plus interest)? Shouldn’t the assets of the bank ultimately increase by the principal of the loan they make plus the interest of the loan? 2) And consequently, also, if fractional reserve banking doesn’t occur at all, but rather banks have the right to create assets freely, shouldn’t bank-runs be very unlikely to ever occur, not a probable hazard that necessitates a “lender of last resort”?
Thanks so much, Will
Hi Will!
A) because when that loan is repaid, the principal is destroyed
B) correct, and they are indeed very rare; they mostly happen when banks have created too many loans without the adequate amount of liquid assets to back a quick rush of deposit withdrawals. The central bank can always provide reserves but it generally would require some sort of collateral against it.
Great article Alf. Really appreciate your views on the major asset classes. That’s really helpful, and also appreciate you give ideas for European ETFs.
Hey Jonathan! That’s what I strive for :)