138 Comments
Jul 14, 2022·edited Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Great article as always professor Alf!

I'd like to understand more about the final point regarding the dollar rally. I'm not an FX trader but I'd like to understand the macro better for USD. What does happen when the party stops?

Amazing stuff. Looking forward to attending your macro university!

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

For readers interested in bond price movement v. interest rate changes, and concepts of duration and convesxity, I thought you might like to read this 4-page from blackrock.

https://www.blackrock.com/fp/documents/understanding_duration.pdf

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

I’m sure this means I’m dumb, but what do you mean by “go fishing”? My guess is be willing to buy if it drops substantially or just “buy opportunistically”, but I’m not really sure and couldn’t get it from context. Thanks!

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf, love your work. Would you mind doing a more in depth podcast on the dollar, would love to hear your thoughts on it.

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

What happens when the party stops?

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

This is a great piece Alf! Thank you!

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Great perspective given succinctly and with real actionable recommendations. Best out there

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Jul 14, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Also remember on this Bastille Day nothing but Macron matters ....

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Jul 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Here's a great rendition of 'Nothing Else Matters" by an all-women Polish group.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09NqLjHJtGQ

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Jul 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Thank you for sharing your views, Alf.

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Jul 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

When QT picks up, shouldn’t interest rate volatility increase and the yield curve steepen as investors start to demanding higher yield to hold longer dated bonds? So wouldn’t this mean long bonds will underperform “this time” under that scenario. Thanks, great writing.

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Jul 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Keep up the good stuff. These last two articles were A-grade.

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Jul 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

I like especially "An Overview of Macro Asset Classes" part. Very appreciated Alf.

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Jul 16, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Have you looked at the ratio copper/gold by McClellan, correlation with the 10 year notes it's indicating the a droop for notes in the short near term.

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Jul 15, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf! I’ve got a couple questions to which I’d really appreciate your response. 1) Since a bank creates a loan or deposit from thin air, and not from their own assets, why do people say that banks make money from only the interest on loans, and not the entirety of the loan repayment (principal plus interest)? Shouldn’t the assets of the bank ultimately increase by the principal of the loan they make plus the interest of the loan? 2) And consequently, also, if fractional reserve banking doesn’t occur at all, but rather banks have the right to create assets freely, shouldn’t bank-runs be very unlikely to ever occur, not a probable hazard that necessitates a “lender of last resort”?

Thanks so much, Will

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Jul 15, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Great article Alf. Really appreciate your views on the major asset classes. That’s really helpful, and also appreciate you give ideas for European ETFs.

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