Hi Alf, normally I am in agreement with you, and i like your analysis. But you are 100% incorrect in "the Federal Reserve is an Independent body" - it reports to and must do what the House of Congress decides. Also the President has every right to criticize any branch of the Federal Government, at any time, and the right to call his Party members to make changes. There is long historical precedent for this because the US politics operates like a big, loud quarrelsome family. Its is not at all smooth and polished like your EU.
The FOMC is a committee established by Congress and might be difficult to move the way a President Trump might favor. The appointment of a loyal mouthpiece like Kevin Hassett to the FOMC next January could cause turmoil in the markets and volatility around the two remaining Fed meetings until May. In government ethics classes, it was frequently said that perception is reality. The US economy may not actually run that hot, but rash statements around the direction of overnight rates could lead to questions about the stability of the US economy, precipitous rises in long term interest rates, market volatility, virtual slowing of the real economy and further losses to the dollar. If Trump is really feeling his oats some morning, he could decide to reverse the 1951 Accord altogether, and switch back to the Treasury controlling money supply as was basically the case during Roosevelt's and Truman's administration, over the objections of the FOMC. This administration would stonewall any case being brought at the Supreme Court under the Federal Reserve Act, Consumer Protection Acts or the Bank Holding Company Act, once it got its injunctions squashed at the Shadow Docket. A politician who found himself floundering might benefit from this - Erdegon did. There are just too many forks in the road to choose. That said, I thought Alf's recommendation of PPAs was prudent, although I am not a Bitcoin fan on principle. I am still overweight in MLPs, cash, Treasuries and FX but keep a diversified portfolio of US stocks that I feel is defensive and can't help having a negative bias towards most domestic tech (where I made most of my gains in the past) and BTC, although it's mostly just a feeling that I arrived early to the site of a disaster that hasn't happened yet.
I am heavily into rental real estate, but with skyrocketing property taxes and insurance costs, I'm going to need to sell before everybody else sells.
Since Trump became President, the Mexican Peso has appreciated 11% against the USD. That, however, is not enough for Trump, and he has said he wants an even weaker USD. That, of course, would be great for his family's many cryptocurrency businesses.
Perhaps investing some US Dollars into Canadian natgas MLPs might be a good move, since they pay some strong dividends. Tariffs are forcing the Canadians to sell their oil and gas worldwide, instead of the the U.S. at severe discounts. This may turn out to be a very good thing for Canada, and work as a dividend producing hedge against a devaluing USD.
Hi Alf, normally I am in agreement with you, and i like your analysis. But you are 100% incorrect in "the Federal Reserve is an Independent body" - it reports to and must do what the House of Congress decides. Also the President has every right to criticize any branch of the Federal Government, at any time, and the right to call his Party members to make changes. There is long historical precedent for this because the US politics operates like a big, loud quarrelsome family. Its is not at all smooth and polished like your EU.
The FOMC is a committee established by Congress and might be difficult to move the way a President Trump might favor. The appointment of a loyal mouthpiece like Kevin Hassett to the FOMC next January could cause turmoil in the markets and volatility around the two remaining Fed meetings until May. In government ethics classes, it was frequently said that perception is reality. The US economy may not actually run that hot, but rash statements around the direction of overnight rates could lead to questions about the stability of the US economy, precipitous rises in long term interest rates, market volatility, virtual slowing of the real economy and further losses to the dollar. If Trump is really feeling his oats some morning, he could decide to reverse the 1951 Accord altogether, and switch back to the Treasury controlling money supply as was basically the case during Roosevelt's and Truman's administration, over the objections of the FOMC. This administration would stonewall any case being brought at the Supreme Court under the Federal Reserve Act, Consumer Protection Acts or the Bank Holding Company Act, once it got its injunctions squashed at the Shadow Docket. A politician who found himself floundering might benefit from this - Erdegon did. There are just too many forks in the road to choose. That said, I thought Alf's recommendation of PPAs was prudent, although I am not a Bitcoin fan on principle. I am still overweight in MLPs, cash, Treasuries and FX but keep a diversified portfolio of US stocks that I feel is defensive and can't help having a negative bias towards most domestic tech (where I made most of my gains in the past) and BTC, although it's mostly just a feeling that I arrived early to the site of a disaster that hasn't happened yet.
Oh look, the 20 and 30 Year Treasury Bonds just popped their heads above 5%. How high can those long term Treasury Bond yields fly?
I am heavily into rental real estate, but with skyrocketing property taxes and insurance costs, I'm going to need to sell before everybody else sells.
Since Trump became President, the Mexican Peso has appreciated 11% against the USD. That, however, is not enough for Trump, and he has said he wants an even weaker USD. That, of course, would be great for his family's many cryptocurrency businesses.
Perhaps investing some US Dollars into Canadian natgas MLPs might be a good move, since they pay some strong dividends. Tariffs are forcing the Canadians to sell their oil and gas worldwide, instead of the the U.S. at severe discounts. This may turn out to be a very good thing for Canada, and work as a dividend producing hedge against a devaluing USD.