Thanks for the fun ride Alf! I’ve learned a lot. I’m retired now and living the fat life. As such, I’m really a long term investor rather than a trader, but the ideas you have presented have given me plenty to think about. Especially the risk management stuff!! I wish you well and I will always treasure your mama’s sourdough recipes. Thanks a million!
Dec 29, 2022·edited Dec 29, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
ciao Alfonso, la versione video è una bomba!
Spero che la manterrai anche per chi non si iscrive ai vari tier paid.
Hai mai pensato di fare informazione/formazione tramite video? hai delle competenze incredibili e faresti il bene di molti che vorrebbero uscire dall'ignoranza finanziaria ma, per un motivo o per l'altro, non riescono in autonomia.
I tuoi video in solitaria sembrano essere ciò che Andrea chiede e questa è un'ottima risorsa didattica.
Le interviste sono un difficile equilibrio. Sarebbe interessante e istruttivo assistere a un dibattito più vivace, ma è necessario incoraggiare i futuri ospiti con gentilezza.
Le interviste migliori (come quelle a Eric Basmajian o Michael Pettis) sono ricche di dettagli, mentre le peggiori (come quelle a Jeff Snider e Steve van Metre, che ammiro molto) sembrano una società di mutuo apprezzamento.
Thanks again Alf! Nice job on the Interactive Macro Tools too. I've been reading and listening to your work since June 4, 2021. You have earned not only the admiration of many but also the respect you deserve. Keep up the continuity. Happy New Year & Thank you again. - Chris
I want to let you know the video is not so mobile friendly to watch, when you share the screen the data is barely still visible (guess you recorded from a desktop). Also it doesn’t allow for pausing and continuing later.
I don’t care if you only send your messages out through smoke signals, I appreciate them anyway, but wanted to let you know since you’re growing the follower base!
That looks promising Alf! …and a little bit overwhelming. As a non professional options trader and value investor I didn't notice the Macro environment too much. But as the macro volatility increased I had to got myself educated more and more … and really love to do the probability game in my head to understand the big picture.
I subscribed immediately once you launched the all round investor program because of the rational clarity with which you explain the environment up until now. Thank you for that.
I trust you to continue inform and educating us so we can take full responsibility for our Tactical marco trades. All the best for 2023!
Roger, sorry to disappoint you but I meant pendulum between recession and fast growth, and between fast disinflation (possibly deflation too) and high inflation
Thank you for your service so far, but disn’t you tell us several times (when you first made your announcement to go paid ) that the newsletter would remain free? Did we misunderstand?
I want to congratulate you for your newsletters and new pay subscription. I already signed up as a long-term investor and reports are great. Portfolio allocations are interesting and agree with them given the current environment but i don't see and guidelines regarding Stop Losses or Take Profits, not very comfortable without Stop Losses. Are you going to add them in future reports? Or what are your recommendations?
Thanks for the fun ride Alf! I’ve learned a lot. I’m retired now and living the fat life. As such, I’m really a long term investor rather than a trader, but the ideas you have presented have given me plenty to think about. Especially the risk management stuff!! I wish you well and I will always treasure your mama’s sourdough recipes. Thanks a million!
Mike Dupree
Texas
Thanks for the kind words, Mike! If you want to join the TMC crew in 2023 you’ll always be welcome
ciao Alfonso, la versione video è una bomba!
Spero che la manterrai anche per chi non si iscrive ai vari tier paid.
Hai mai pensato di fare informazione/formazione tramite video? hai delle competenze incredibili e faresti il bene di molti che vorrebbero uscire dall'ignoranza finanziaria ma, per un motivo o per l'altro, non riescono in autonomia.
buone feste!
Andrea
Apro il mio canale YouTube a breve :)
Ho imparato molto dai video di Alf su Youtube a Boiler Room sul Blockworks Macro.
Le "interviste" con il solo Alf sono spesso migliori di quelle con gli ospiti.
Grazie del feedback! Cosa ti è piaciuto e cosa no dei video?
I tuoi video in solitaria sembrano essere ciò che Andrea chiede e questa è un'ottima risorsa didattica.
Le interviste sono un difficile equilibrio. Sarebbe interessante e istruttivo assistere a un dibattito più vivace, ma è necessario incoraggiare i futuri ospiti con gentilezza.
Le interviste migliori (come quelle a Eric Basmajian o Michael Pettis) sono ricche di dettagli, mentre le peggiori (come quelle a Jeff Snider e Steve van Metre, che ammiro molto) sembrano una società di mutuo apprezzamento.
Hi Alfonso, thanks a lot for the great article. I’m looking forward to hear more from you next year. Have a smooth ride to 2023!!
Thank you, and happy new year!
Awesome work! The VAMD looks amazing. I'm looking forward to 2023 and seeing more of your work.
I'm not sure if the colour coding on the US 1y1y real yield is correct as it's different than the colour coding of the other rate moves.
Hi Pascal, thank you!
It’s really hard work to deliver a product like this and we’ll keep improving it - so please continue giving us feedback :)
Indeed and its Z-score of 0.0 despite a fairly substantial movement makes me think I don't understand what I am looking at.
Thanks again Alf! Nice job on the Interactive Macro Tools too. I've been reading and listening to your work since June 4, 2021. You have earned not only the admiration of many but also the respect you deserve. Keep up the continuity. Happy New Year & Thank you again. - Chris
These are very nice words to read. Thanks!
Great stuff.
I am retired and fairly old, so I could not justify a subscription. My property taxes are not much more than lowest rate.
But I have enjoyed reading and will read what you send out.
You have a great New Year.
And thanks,
Richard
You are welcome, Richard!
If you ever consider joining the TMC crew in 2023, you will always be welcome
Dashboard looks very nice!
on a side note, your glasses suit you very well. Do you mind sharing the brand?
have a happy new year! Tom
Ahah thanks for the compliment - it’s a local Southern Italian brand
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 🥳
Same, Nicholas!
Ciao Alf!
Greatly appreciate your content.
I want to let you know the video is not so mobile friendly to watch, when you share the screen the data is barely still visible (guess you recorded from a desktop). Also it doesn’t allow for pausing and continuing later.
I don’t care if you only send your messages out through smoke signals, I appreciate them anyway, but wanted to let you know since you’re growing the follower base!
Best
Fair point, thanks for the remark!
This is great! Really looking forward to learning how to piece together a Macro outlook using the tools. 👍
Glad you came onboard!
Has there been any back testing of the long term ETF portfolio?
As somebody who ran a $20 billion portfolio and got burnt many times, I take risk management and backtestkng very seriously:)
That looks promising Alf! …and a little bit overwhelming. As a non professional options trader and value investor I didn't notice the Macro environment too much. But as the macro volatility increased I had to got myself educated more and more … and really love to do the probability game in my head to understand the big picture.
I subscribed immediately once you launched the all round investor program because of the rational clarity with which you explain the environment up until now. Thank you for that.
I trust you to continue inform and educating us so we can take full responsibility for our Tactical marco trades. All the best for 2023!
Thank you, amazing to read this comment!
Dear Alf, best of luck to your new phase. I will not join your paid subscription service but you deserve to have success
Thanks Constant! If you ever change your mind, you’ll always be welcome
Thanks for another excellent piece.
You talk about a pendulum swinging between growth and inflation, which doesn't sound too bad.
I was afraid you were going to say between inflation and deflation, with little real growth over the long term.
I am greatly relieved.
Roger, sorry to disappoint you but I meant pendulum between recession and fast growth, and between fast disinflation (possibly deflation too) and high inflation
That is more consistent with everything else you have been saying.
So we are set to live in interesting times.
Thank you for your service so far, but disn’t you tell us several times (when you first made your announcement to go paid ) that the newsletter would remain free? Did we misunderstand?
Hi, welcome!
This newsletter will remain free but I will publish only occasionally. The best content will be behind paywall
Hi Alf,
I want to congratulate you for your newsletters and new pay subscription. I already signed up as a long-term investor and reports are great. Portfolio allocations are interesting and agree with them given the current environment but i don't see and guidelines regarding Stop Losses or Take Profits, not very comfortable without Stop Losses. Are you going to add them in future reports? Or what are your recommendations?
Thanks
Hi Carlos!
Stop losses and profit targets will be discussed for tactical trades available to All-Round investor subscribers.
The ETF Portfolios will be risk-managed on a portfolio level
Thanks for your reply Alf, got it so I guess you would sell when you change the portfolio allocation?
Also, what are the expected return approximate... that could expect with the long-term etf portfolio.