Hey Alf, you mention bond flatteners a lot. Could you write a piece describing what they are and how they are calculated for those of us unfamiliar with the concept. Or perhaps could you provide a link to a good description? Thanks for your articles. I learn from them a lot.
Thanks for keeping us up to date, Alf! In the next episode, I would really love to hear about the best possible financial instruments that will shelter someone from a recesion: bonds, precious metals etc. Also, what do you think about dividend stocks during a recesion? Cheers! Looking forward to the next podcast.
Awesome article and listen. I am craving a discussion on construction or weightings on tactical vs. long-term portfolios (i.e. the percent to each). Also, the other interest is construction of a portfolio with consideration of risk. Specifically, you have talk to managing your risk allocation. How might an investor comfortable thinking about expected volatilities of different asset classes go about manage their desired risk allocation (e.g. sizing trades).
Impressive work Alf, YTD P&L: +21%; maximum drawdown: -7%. Perhaps, if you want, you could share a bit on the YTD P&L. Biggest contribution and the opposite?
I think the key part missing is how US can export inflation with the supply chain broken/deglobalization. Fed can destruct demand to bring down inflation but it's only a temporary solution. Until US finds a new way to export inflation, the Fed's hands are tied in terms of easing when recession comes.
Alf, you are a breath of fresh, sensible air on the investing scene. I follow a number of talking heads and you are the best. Would it possible to publish your tactical and long term portfolios in a way that we could mimic/them? I'd be willing to pay $50/mo for access to your portfolios with updates when you trade.
Hey Alf, you mention bond flatteners a lot. Could you write a piece describing what they are and how they are calculated for those of us unfamiliar with the concept. Or perhaps could you provide a link to a good description? Thanks for your articles. I learn from them a lot.
I will try and shed some light on how to structure a flattener or a steepener. Thanks for the feedback!
testing
Thanks for keeping us up to date, Alf! In the next episode, I would really love to hear about the best possible financial instruments that will shelter someone from a recesion: bonds, precious metals etc. Also, what do you think about dividend stocks during a recesion? Cheers! Looking forward to the next podcast.
I'll cover those, Dragos!
Awesome article and listen. I am craving a discussion on construction or weightings on tactical vs. long-term portfolios (i.e. the percent to each). Also, the other interest is construction of a portfolio with consideration of risk. Specifically, you have talk to managing your risk allocation. How might an investor comfortable thinking about expected volatilities of different asset classes go about manage their desired risk allocation (e.g. sizing trades).
Such smart questions, Nick.
Will try and address them.
Impressive work Alf, YTD P&L: +21%; maximum drawdown: -7%. Perhaps, if you want, you could share a bit on the YTD P&L. Biggest contribution and the opposite?
thanks again
Yep, will reflect on my strategy and the performance YTD.
Plenty I could have done better :)
QQQ why???
It's a relative value trade against the Russell.
The idea is to try and capture a potential ''early pivot'' from the Fed, or a relative rally in tech stocks if long-end bond yields stop going up.
Remember: always relative to the Russell, not on an absolute basis.
Any specific reason why the ratio between QQQ and IWM? 1 Long QQQ - 2 short IWM.
Thank you.
@Alf are you trying to get an equal price weight for QQQ vs -2 IWM ?
I think the key part missing is how US can export inflation with the supply chain broken/deglobalization. Fed can destruct demand to bring down inflation but it's only a temporary solution. Until US finds a new way to export inflation, the Fed's hands are tied in terms of easing when recession comes.
Extremely good point.
You said “adding long JPY/AUD”. You mean JPY will reevaluate against dollar and so AUD. Or are you betting JPY against AUD?
Hi Jose, yes.
I mean a stronger JPY against a weaker AUD.
Alf, you are a breath of fresh, sensible air on the investing scene. I follow a number of talking heads and you are the best. Would it possible to publish your tactical and long term portfolios in a way that we could mimic/them? I'd be willing to pay $50/mo for access to your portfolios with updates when you trade.
Hi Michael!
Thanks a lot :)
I publish all my live trades here and on Twitter (follow me there if you don't do that already).
Great info. Thanks.
Welcome, Helen!
Well done Alf. Very well done.
Very kind Mike, thanks!
Yeah wondering what a bond flattener is.
Time I explain a bit more there eheh
Thanks for what you do for free. I find it a great breakdown of macro moves and very helpful in guiding my portfolio management
My pleasure, Paul!
So glad to have found your voice and work, Alf. Thanks for all you do!
In particular wanted to appreciate the way that you link to other free and impactful resources in your posts. I've found a lot of gold here too.
🙏
Glad it helps you!
Hi Alf - love this view. Can you talk about the flattener trade more and the components. Also, what is your target for LQDH? Thanks
I will, thanks for the feedback Jig!
Welcome back Alf. I trust you smashed the sun tan on your holiday!
Excellent and very informative per the norm. Thank you.
Thank you, Riki!
Thanks, Alf!
Welcome, Jose!