45 Comments
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf,

I guess I am one of the fortunate ones who managed to join your new service early on before you raised the price. Your posts are very instructional and useful.

A couple of quick question related to this subscription and specifically to this last post.

1) Will you ensure your "long term ETF portfolio" is constructed to avoid the three mistakes you mention in this post, ie. that you will ensure the portfolio is: hedged across multiple macro baskets, diversified across multiple macro themes within a basket, and avoid proxies ?

2) You mention: "think in probabilistic terms and try to add cheap positions that will deliver convex returns if your base case doesn’t realize." - does this mean in your long term ETF portfolio you will be recommending specific convex tail risk insurance implementations as well?

Thanks and keep up the great work!

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

I suspect not many people here know what PCA analysis is, and perhaps only a few want to know. It is not a very easy subject, not b/c it's so hard technically (if you know enough math) but b/c it is usually poorly explained. As a student, I gave up on people who tried to explain it to me in an hour and ended up reading a whole book.

For those who wants to understand what PCA does, I highly recommend a brilliant post written "for a grandmother" by a statistician. It is by far the best non-technical introduction that you will ever find.

https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/2691/making-sense-of-principal-component-analysis-eigenvectors-eigenvalues/140579#140579

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Another great podcast Alf. I'm very glad I've signed up to your service for 2023. Some thoughts/comments on your podcast:

1. 'Don't put all eggs in 1 basket': For a pure equity investor does investing in 1 Global ETF fund count if the fund invests across multiple markets (US, Japan, EU etc.) and contains >3k stocks?

2. Drip- feeding cash into investments: Your podcast last week focused on the probability of recession in 2023. If you accept this view then any thoughts on over what period an investor should drip-feed cash back into stocks: 12/24/36 months?

3. If an investor just restricts themselves to Stocks & bonds then should a truly long term investor (10+ years), requiring no income, just restrict themselves to Stocks?

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Ah bad proxy trades, reminds me of buying puts on SPY and calls on GLD right before Trump won the election. A good lesson in making sure your exposure is properly targeted.

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Don’t be stupid? What if that can’t be helped? I’ve been looking for a “Smart Trades for Stupid People” article for some time, we are an underserved community here Alf

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

When you suggest going “long” .. like in fourth quadrant, how “long” is long put..6mo. or 12mo. or more?

Thanks AlF

Expand full comment
Dec 3, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Excellent work, Alf. Once again, thank you.

Expand full comment
Dec 2, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Great article Alf. Thanks for the trading tips!

Expand full comment
Dec 2, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Perhaps you could expand on gold being a real rates play and not an inflation play (I have learned that myself through trial and error and loss of capital).

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Very interesting.

I hope we have a lot more on this topic next year.

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Thanks for the quick write-up on your 3 core principles. Hoping to see more like these over time that are easier to digest for anyone newer to the world of macro investing!

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

hi Alf, when is the monthly subscription open? Thanks.

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf, wondering about TLT and when is the timming to jump and buy.... would it be that we lost the oportunity when it reached 92 late october?

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Ciao Alf,

gold as a real interest play ... I get it but I am wondering, on what maturity, 5yrs, 10yrs?

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

All good points on which I have been focusing recently. 👍

Expand full comment
Dec 1, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Haha this is great. There's nothing like a good reminder not to get cute. Thanks Alf

Expand full comment