That is an interesting perspective and thanks for your analysis. But in my opinion supply chain disruptions and oil prices have been a bigger factor in generating inflationary pressures in 2022. It might well be that disinflation continues well into 2024 as the effects of those shocks reversal is still playing out along with mitigating shelter pressures that have been quite persistent. In this blog post (https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/02/how-much-can-gscpi-improvements-help-reduce-inflation/) we provided an analysis based on global supply chain pressures and oil price factors.
Hi thanks for the great wok, but I dont see so clear the leading indicator of the TMC credit impulse indicator, could you give me exact dates where you saw the signal?
That is an interesting perspective and thanks for your analysis. But in my opinion supply chain disruptions and oil prices have been a bigger factor in generating inflationary pressures in 2022. It might well be that disinflation continues well into 2024 as the effects of those shocks reversal is still playing out along with mitigating shelter pressures that have been quite persistent. In this blog post (https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/02/how-much-can-gscpi-improvements-help-reduce-inflation/) we provided an analysis based on global supply chain pressures and oil price factors.
Ciao Gianluca, I am an avid reader of Liberty Street - thank you so much for the great work!
Hi thanks for the great wok, but I dont see so clear the leading indicator of the TMC credit impulse indicator, could you give me exact dates where you saw the signal?