Great work, thanks! This is something I can get my head around. I've always wanted to expand my knowledge on the bond market but it's a tough hill to climb for a hobby investor with limited time and resources. I truly appreciate you sharing your knowledge, giving a leg up and providing guidance into complicated subjects like this. I said it before; you explain complicated mater in a compelling manner, without oversimplyfying but also without melting my limited brain. Grazie mille!
Feb 7, 2022·edited Feb 9, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Dear Alf,
Thank you very much for writing this post. I am looking very much forward to your next post on the repo market and the upcoming posts of the Bond Market 101 series.
what do they mean those green and red circles in the US real yields-r* graph above?
Hey Alf. Thanks again for a great piece. On question, how do we know generally if real sovereign yields move because of growth expectations or something else - I guess risk premium?
Basically, real rates have risen recently - let’s talk of the 10Y in this case; but this wasn’t because of better growth expectations to the contrary.
Also, I wanted to get a better understanding of how the inner part of the curve between the 2 and 30y which you explain incredibly well works - which are the main variables affecting most the 5y, the 15-20y. Many thanks!
Hi Ralph, would appreciate it if you tell us plebs without Bloomberg terminal how to track the US 5y junk credit spreads graph you have referenced in this article. Is it just the US05Y minus HYG etf? or is it the ICE US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread which is very close to your chart but not exact. link attached: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
I think the series is going to be very educational! Thank you very much and keep up the great work. I would definitely buy your book when you write one.
Many thanks - it's great to learn how to interpret Bind Yields. Its still not simple but takes time to understand. Perhaps some example analysis of regional 10 year bind yields would be helpful. Also where can we get access to the data : OIS Swap rate and Treasury yields
Cullen brings up the question, "Why is the FED doing QE now?" and speculating that because rates are at zero that balance sheet manipulation is the only "tool" they have. This IMF paper talks about going negative on paper account while paying interest on CBDC accounts. How would that effect the banking system? https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15224.pdf
Hi Alf, great content as usual! I was just wondering, the relation TSY YIELD = OIS + ASW holds also in the EUR market? I think I read that EUR Swap Spread = IR Swap - Bund Yield... does it make sense to you? Could be that the difference in the two definitions depends on the fact that the US market as one and only one govt curve whilst Europe has many? Thank you
Great work, thanks! This is something I can get my head around. I've always wanted to expand my knowledge on the bond market but it's a tough hill to climb for a hobby investor with limited time and resources. I truly appreciate you sharing your knowledge, giving a leg up and providing guidance into complicated subjects like this. I said it before; you explain complicated mater in a compelling manner, without oversimplyfying but also without melting my limited brain. Grazie mille!
absolutely wonderful explanation.. This will be my reference going in FI going forward . A complete gem
Thanks Alf, looking forward for the upcoming bond 101 series, very helpful!
Dear Alf,
Thank you very much for writing this post. I am looking very much forward to your next post on the repo market and the upcoming posts of the Bond Market 101 series.
what do they mean those green and red circles in the US real yields-r* graph above?
Again, thank you
Best regards
Alf - these blogs and recordings are really helpful and in very bite-sized understandable chunks. Thank you very much for doing this.
This is an excellent note. Nice job!
Thank alfanos.. Maybe iam your first fan in Somaliland.
Keep good work, all the best.
Did u write any books?
Do all UST have same risk weight? i.e all maturities?
Hey Alf. Thanks again for a great piece. On question, how do we know generally if real sovereign yields move because of growth expectations or something else - I guess risk premium?
Basically, real rates have risen recently - let’s talk of the 10Y in this case; but this wasn’t because of better growth expectations to the contrary.
Also, I wanted to get a better understanding of how the inner part of the curve between the 2 and 30y which you explain incredibly well works - which are the main variables affecting most the 5y, the 15-20y. Many thanks!
Hi Ralph, would appreciate it if you tell us plebs without Bloomberg terminal how to track the US 5y junk credit spreads graph you have referenced in this article. Is it just the US05Y minus HYG etf? or is it the ICE US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread which is very close to your chart but not exact. link attached: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
Thanks
Alf, as usual thank you !!!
Also, watched the RV Cullen Roche interchange. Very informative when you realize that "banks do not want to hold reserves".
I think the series is going to be very educational! Thank you very much and keep up the great work. I would definitely buy your book when you write one.
Many thanks - it's great to learn how to interpret Bind Yields. Its still not simple but takes time to understand. Perhaps some example analysis of regional 10 year bind yields would be helpful. Also where can we get access to the data : OIS Swap rate and Treasury yields
Cullen brings up the question, "Why is the FED doing QE now?" and speculating that because rates are at zero that balance sheet manipulation is the only "tool" they have. This IMF paper talks about going negative on paper account while paying interest on CBDC accounts. How would that effect the banking system? https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15224.pdf
Hi Alf, great content as usual! I was just wondering, the relation TSY YIELD = OIS + ASW holds also in the EUR market? I think I read that EUR Swap Spread = IR Swap - Bund Yield... does it make sense to you? Could be that the difference in the two definitions depends on the fact that the US market as one and only one govt curve whilst Europe has many? Thank you