another fascinating article - I just wish I understood it!
In the subscriber version, you quote Stanley Druckenmuller saying that market internals are the best economist he ever met, but then seem to be saying that the market internals are completely wrong.
Presumably Stanley hasn't met you.
You say that bond pricing is in la-la land, but what would you expect to see?
Assuming we are a few months away from a recession and that there is still a divergence of views, but more people are gradually switching to risk-off (i.e. bonds), then your points A-D seem to be what often happens in the stage before reality hits.
As you imply the equity market may misinterpret these signals, but which land equities are in is a different issue.
It truly is a bit different because of QT. Even if inflation normalized, the interest rate environment would stabilize, at best. In other words, liquidity is not going to be boosted any time soon -- at least until something breaks, theres a proper recession or other black swan emerges.
the bond market bottomed in October, so this is the last opportunity to load the truck up. Next thing, we should see the yield curve sloping, and that means the crash is near.
Meanwhile, and it depends on the earning results, we may see intermediate rally in tec stocks, and risky assets. EARNINGS, GDP, EMPLOYMENT need to be watched closely.
I was interested in subscribing to the Macro Compass, but I received no reply to a question submitted via your website and following that non-response, I received no reply to an email asking the same question. So until Macro Compass improves its administration function, sadly I am one that will stay clear of your products.
I'm amazed by the fact that so many people on the internet believe that some clowns could predict market movements or advice on complex things. Individuals paying thousands of dollars for an email are just losers.
Thanks Alf,
another fascinating article - I just wish I understood it!
In the subscriber version, you quote Stanley Druckenmuller saying that market internals are the best economist he ever met, but then seem to be saying that the market internals are completely wrong.
Presumably Stanley hasn't met you.
You say that bond pricing is in la-la land, but what would you expect to see?
Assuming we are a few months away from a recession and that there is still a divergence of views, but more people are gradually switching to risk-off (i.e. bonds), then your points A-D seem to be what often happens in the stage before reality hits.
As you imply the equity market may misinterpret these signals, but which land equities are in is a different issue.
Quis hic locus, quae regio, quae mundi plaga?
It truly is a bit different because of QT. Even if inflation normalized, the interest rate environment would stabilize, at best. In other words, liquidity is not going to be boosted any time soon -- at least until something breaks, theres a proper recession or other black swan emerges.
Hence value investing is still king.
Thanks, Alf, your input is exceptional.
the bond market bottomed in October, so this is the last opportunity to load the truck up. Next thing, we should see the yield curve sloping, and that means the crash is near.
Meanwhile, and it depends on the earning results, we may see intermediate rally in tec stocks, and risky assets. EARNINGS, GDP, EMPLOYMENT need to be watched closely.
Thank you Alf. I understand the format and appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thank you again. - Chris
is this a first part of a series of articles or is the rest of the article for paid subscription only?
I was interested in subscribing to the Macro Compass, but I received no reply to a question submitted via your website and following that non-response, I received no reply to an email asking the same question. So until Macro Compass improves its administration function, sadly I am one that will stay clear of your products.
GM.
So is this time different or…. Bit of a cryptic ending
Morning Alf
Good morning Alfonso
Hi Alf, I bought the subscription. Very happy so far. Where in the subscription tool can we submit questions to you?
This comment section was valuable, so wondering where to comment in the new tool!. Thanks!...
I'm amazed by the fact that so many people on the internet believe that some clowns could predict market movements or advice on complex things. Individuals paying thousands of dollars for an email are just losers.