22 Comments
Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Thanks Alf,

another fascinating article - I just wish I understood it!

In the subscriber version, you quote Stanley Druckenmuller saying that market internals are the best economist he ever met, but then seem to be saying that the market internals are completely wrong.

Presumably Stanley hasn't met you.

You say that bond pricing is in la-la land, but what would you expect to see?

Assuming we are a few months away from a recession and that there is still a divergence of views, but more people are gradually switching to risk-off (i.e. bonds), then your points A-D seem to be what often happens in the stage before reality hits.

As you imply the equity market may misinterpret these signals, but which land equities are in is a different issue.

Quis hic locus, quae regio, quae mundi plaga?

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author

Your comments are always funny and interesting, Roger :)

I am making progress on setting up a community section for TMC subscribers - stay tuned

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

It truly is a bit different because of QT. Even if inflation normalized, the interest rate environment would stabilize, at best. In other words, liquidity is not going to be boosted any time soon -- at least until something breaks, theres a proper recession or other black swan emerges.

Hence value investing is still king.

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In this case, I would consider 4% risk-free cash yield to be king.

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I guess… But for how long?

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Jan 19, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Thanks, Alf, your input is exceptional.

the bond market bottomed in October, so this is the last opportunity to load the truck up. Next thing, we should see the yield curve sloping, and that means the crash is near.

Meanwhile, and it depends on the earning results, we may see intermediate rally in tec stocks, and risky assets. EARNINGS, GDP, EMPLOYMENT need to be watched closely.

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author

I think you are broadly right

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Thank you Alf. I understand the format and appreciate you sharing your knowledge. Thank you again. - Chris

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author

My pleasure, Chris!

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

is this a first part of a series of articles or is the rest of the article for paid subscription only?

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author

The rest of the article is for paid subscribers.

Occasionally, I will release a full article which is free for everybody

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

I was interested in subscribing to the Macro Compass, but I received no reply to a question submitted via your website and following that non-response, I received no reply to an email asking the same question. So until Macro Compass improves its administration function, sadly I am one that will stay clear of your products.

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author

Hi David, we do our best to reply to every single question.

What email address did you reach out to?

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I emailed media@themacrocompass.com, however, I have just this minute copied and pasted my email within the website message system at themacrocompass.com website. Thank you Alf for reaching our so quickly following my comment. Regards, David

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

GM.

So is this time different or…. Bit of a cryptic ending

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author

The answer in the full article on TMC platform :)

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Morning Alf

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Jan 18, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Good morning Alfonso

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Jan 20, 2023·edited Jan 20, 2023Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf, I bought the subscription. Very happy so far. Where in the subscription tool can we submit questions to you?

This comment section was valuable, so wondering where to comment in the new tool!. Thanks!...

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author

Hi Jose! Thanks for being a subscriber.

I am working on implementing something much better than a comment section: a live chat where we can debate views together as a community.

Give me a few months and we'll get there :)

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Jan 21, 2023·edited Jan 21, 2023

I'm amazed by the fact that so many people on the internet believe that some clowns could predict market movements or advice on complex things. Individuals paying thousands of dollars for an email are just losers.

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author

Jak, feel free to unsubscribe. Nobody is forcing you to stay :)

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