Cool. I think IVOL has a steepener options layer but not sure about BNDD (assuming the opposite). Nancy Davis who runs these would be an awesome guest on your show. Here's a few recent talks.
I compliment you on your writing style. It's reflective of an organized and logical mind when going through the macro/market analytical process; succinct, too. Thanks for all your sharing, Alf. Warren Bachman
Looking forward to it! I would like to know if such calculations are possible on the popular TradingView platform that I and many other retail traders/investors use OR if one requires more sophisticated software? My background is in psychology and statistics and "r" to me represents a correlation coefficient (typically Pearson's r), but then there is R or R² to represent overall variance accounted for by a model. It would be cool to understand the mechanics in simple terms 🥰
Excellent Synopsis! My wife and I just left Sorrento and Capri! You live in a beautiful country Alf! The Italians sure know how to appreciate the finer things in life. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. It is greatly appreciated!
Is there any other way of modeling/charting the signaling of Central Banks (directly or indirectly) for buying bonds? It looks like you are smoothening the volatility of US10y real yields, im guessing using some MA or something similar.
Could you explain the benefit of using RTYA versus TZA (which I believe is 3x inverse versus the 2x of RTYA). But the question is the same. Why is shorting futures better than shorting the actual index.
Would IVOL or BNDD be a way to express the short bond volatility view with ETFs?
Hi Michael, I wasn't aware of these!
I'll look into them.
Cool. I think IVOL has a steepener options layer but not sure about BNDD (assuming the opposite). Nancy Davis who runs these would be an awesome guest on your show. Here's a few recent talks.
https://twitter.com/McGroartyRobert/status/1539263539067617281
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKvp29or1OY
I compliment you on your writing style. It's reflective of an organized and logical mind when going through the macro/market analytical process; succinct, too. Thanks for all your sharing, Alf. Warren Bachman
Thanks, Warren!
Hi Alf
I am in the Vanguard ETF VGB Australian Bonds 40% then GDX Gold Miners 42%
then Cash18% as I am semi Retired, drawing a small income from the super fund but at 68 years still
work 30 hrs. a week at my day job.
I am a self managed super fund manager and keeping it simple and very simple.
Love your ongoing content "Frank G Melbourne Australia"
Ciao Frank!
Thrilled to see someone else getting crushed so far this year via the miners. LOL n
Cryptocurrencies are indeed a shady proposition in my opinion.
Thanks 😊 I'll listen to that podcast today.
Curious as to what goes into your r* estimate?
Hi Ben!
Planning to explain it in a video course or something similar over the next months.
Looking forward to it! I would like to know if such calculations are possible on the popular TradingView platform that I and many other retail traders/investors use OR if one requires more sophisticated software? My background is in psychology and statistics and "r" to me represents a correlation coefficient (typically Pearson's r), but then there is R or R² to represent overall variance accounted for by a model. It would be cool to understand the mechanics in simple terms 🥰
Excellent Synopsis! My wife and I just left Sorrento and Capri! You live in a beautiful country Alf! The Italians sure know how to appreciate the finer things in life. Thank you for sharing your knowledge. It is greatly appreciated!
Very kind, Andrew!
Fantastic stuff. Most actionable macro newsletter out there.
Thanks, Andrew. That's what I am going for :)
Thank you for explaining the Macro and providing specific ETF portfolio movements. And, thank you for replicating the structure in the podcast too. :)
Hey Chris, it's my pleasure!
Is there any other way of modeling/charting the signaling of Central Banks (directly or indirectly) for buying bonds? It looks like you are smoothening the volatility of US10y real yields, im guessing using some MA or something similar.
Hi! You can do some modelling (I do), but in some cases it's going to be also about the discretionary art of listening to the Game Masters :)
Thanks for a great and actionable update Alf!
Glad you liked it, Jesper!
Excellent update. Thanks and enjoy your time off!
Thank you!
How can weak long term growth be a positive indicator to enter the bond market?
Because long-term bond yields reflect expectations for long-term nominal growth.
Thank you and keep the outstanding analysis!
Great read!
Is the 2x short Russel 2000 futures a daily inverse ETF? Generally speaking, are there any non daily inverse ETFs?
Marco
Ciao Marco, I simply shorted the future (I didn't use the inverse ETF).
There are a bunch out there, have a look :)
Is there an ETF to short the R2000?
RWM I believe?
I’ve been doing SPXU and SRTY calls and they’ve been doing well.
Could you explain the benefit of using RTYA versus TZA (which I believe is 3x inverse versus the 2x of RTYA). But the question is the same. Why is shorting futures better than shorting the actual index.
Enjoy the sun Alf, sounds wonderful!
Thanks, Rich!
Thank you. Great analysis.
Welcome, Andreas!