After following Macro for 10+ years am amazed at how much I still don't know but find the perspective indispensable. Alf you are very generous with your insights and guests and distilling it down for most of us. Have to figure the mean reversion happens sometime in equities but in an everything bubble looking for those clues.
Interesting thoughts. Love the views. I wonder how $150 Brent plays into this? This will likely be the catalyst for decreased economic growth …. Not credit contraction. But, hey, what do I know…..
Thanks Alf, a valuable perspective to integrate in the bigger picture, and contrasts with the Elliot Wave major SPX BULL 4 (due with QTR 2022) and 5 wave completion due last 2023. Although the NDX seems to be breaking down and the canary in the coal mine ARKK is definitely breaking down.
Telsa support around 800-850 and AMZN will give us some insight into the large NDX stocks, although that obviously is not necessarily the SPX will go.
The base metal commodity macro perspective is worth watching closely. Nickel LME inventory lows are steepening, whilst their demand for Cathode chemistries and longer term supply/demand curve is increasing. Similarly graphite, cobalt, RE, etc. (IMF analysis Dec 2021).
I'd imagine if there is a decent sell off, many of these emerging battery supply chain companies will be hit hard, but the decent ones with plenty of cash, technology, projects and management teams with a global footprint will represent a significant bargain long term.
The secular de-globalization trend away from China risks and green movement will definitely feature in the risk / reward proposition and support the above segment.
So succinct and clear. Thanks for this macro view. One question: Any chance you could elaborate on the view of a strengthening USD during this process?
"And I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now" Can't say it any more clearly than this as to strategy... Thanks!
He doesn't get Inflation situation into the picture which is very different from previous scenarios. Is there a implicit assumption of transitory inflation?
After following Macro for 10+ years am amazed at how much I still don't know but find the perspective indispensable. Alf you are very generous with your insights and guests and distilling it down for most of us. Have to figure the mean reversion happens sometime in equities but in an everything bubble looking for those clues.
Thanks @Alf for sharing such high-level content.
Thank you Alf, as usual great article!
Ok. This deserves a trip to Madrid to watch a Real Madrid game. On me. Real Macro would be a great name for that podcast ;)
Interesting thoughts. Love the views. I wonder how $150 Brent plays into this? This will likely be the catalyst for decreased economic growth …. Not credit contraction. But, hey, what do I know…..
Thanks Alf, a valuable perspective to integrate in the bigger picture, and contrasts with the Elliot Wave major SPX BULL 4 (due with QTR 2022) and 5 wave completion due last 2023. Although the NDX seems to be breaking down and the canary in the coal mine ARKK is definitely breaking down.
Telsa support around 800-850 and AMZN will give us some insight into the large NDX stocks, although that obviously is not necessarily the SPX will go.
The base metal commodity macro perspective is worth watching closely. Nickel LME inventory lows are steepening, whilst their demand for Cathode chemistries and longer term supply/demand curve is increasing. Similarly graphite, cobalt, RE, etc. (IMF analysis Dec 2021).
I'd imagine if there is a decent sell off, many of these emerging battery supply chain companies will be hit hard, but the decent ones with plenty of cash, technology, projects and management teams with a global footprint will represent a significant bargain long term.
The secular de-globalization trend away from China risks and green movement will definitely feature in the risk / reward proposition and support the above segment.
also you do good stuff on real vision
Whats the podcasts name? is it going on spotify? I CANT WAIT!
So succinct and clear. Thanks for this macro view. One question: Any chance you could elaborate on the view of a strengthening USD during this process?
Very happy to hear of your collaboration. I too can be fairly sure of one thing: it will be very good!
Great interview! Really looking forward to your and Andreas' new podcast series!!!
What exactly is the USD reserve data?
"And I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now" Can't say it any more clearly than this as to strategy... Thanks!
He doesn't get Inflation situation into the picture which is very different from previous scenarios. Is there a implicit assumption of transitory inflation?