After following Macro for 10+ years am amazed at how much I still don't know but find the perspective indispensable. Alf you are very generous with your insights and guests and distilling it down for most of us. Have to figure the mean reversion happens sometime in equities but in an everything bubble looking for those clues.
Sure! I know he is a huge fan as I am. And if you don't, give us a chance! Haha. Could be great having a few beers and sharing some ideas on how to retire these stablishment-baby boomers and change their investment industry for our generation from a rate of change perspective. Best regards!
Hi. Yes! That's awesome! Good match for sure. Betis is doing great this year and May is perfect time to come to Madrid. If you want to have a beer the day of the match just contact me (@Alex_Coll on Twitter).
Interesting thoughts. Love the views. I wonder how $150 Brent plays into this? This will likely be the catalyst for decreased economic growth …. Not credit contraction. But, hey, what do I know…..
Thanks Alf, a valuable perspective to integrate in the bigger picture, and contrasts with the Elliot Wave major SPX BULL 4 (due with QTR 2022) and 5 wave completion due last 2023. Although the NDX seems to be breaking down and the canary in the coal mine ARKK is definitely breaking down.
Telsa support around 800-850 and AMZN will give us some insight into the large NDX stocks, although that obviously is not necessarily the SPX will go.
The base metal commodity macro perspective is worth watching closely. Nickel LME inventory lows are steepening, whilst their demand for Cathode chemistries and longer term supply/demand curve is increasing. Similarly graphite, cobalt, RE, etc. (IMF analysis Dec 2021).
I'd imagine if there is a decent sell off, many of these emerging battery supply chain companies will be hit hard, but the decent ones with plenty of cash, technology, projects and management teams with a global footprint will represent a significant bargain long term.
The secular de-globalization trend away from China risks and green movement will definitely feature in the risk / reward proposition and support the above segment.
So succinct and clear. Thanks for this macro view. One question: Any chance you could elaborate on the view of a strengthening USD during this process?
"And I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now" Can't say it any more clearly than this as to strategy... Thanks!
He doesn't get Inflation situation into the picture which is very different from previous scenarios. Is there a implicit assumption of transitory inflation?
After following Macro for 10+ years am amazed at how much I still don't know but find the perspective indispensable. Alf you are very generous with your insights and guests and distilling it down for most of us. Have to figure the mean reversion happens sometime in equities but in an everything bubble looking for those clues.
Very kind words, thank you!
Thanks @Alf for sharing such high-level content.
My pleasure, Alessandro!
Thank you Alf, as usual great article!
Thank you for reading, Kaz!
Ok. This deserves a trip to Madrid to watch a Real Madrid game. On me. Real Macro would be a great name for that podcast ;)
Are you sure, Alejandro? Andreas might take you on your word! :)
Sure! I know he is a huge fan as I am. And if you don't, give us a chance! Haha. Could be great having a few beers and sharing some ideas on how to retire these stablishment-baby boomers and change their investment industry for our generation from a rate of change perspective. Best regards!
Hi Alejandro. I will be there for the match against Betis in May.. Hopefully time to celebrate at the Cibeles !
Hi. Yes! That's awesome! Good match for sure. Betis is doing great this year and May is perfect time to come to Madrid. If you want to have a beer the day of the match just contact me (@Alex_Coll on Twitter).
Interesting thoughts. Love the views. I wonder how $150 Brent plays into this? This will likely be the catalyst for decreased economic growth …. Not credit contraction. But, hey, what do I know…..
We all try to give our best perspective, Rob. Nobody knows for sure :)
Thanks Alf, a valuable perspective to integrate in the bigger picture, and contrasts with the Elliot Wave major SPX BULL 4 (due with QTR 2022) and 5 wave completion due last 2023. Although the NDX seems to be breaking down and the canary in the coal mine ARKK is definitely breaking down.
Telsa support around 800-850 and AMZN will give us some insight into the large NDX stocks, although that obviously is not necessarily the SPX will go.
The base metal commodity macro perspective is worth watching closely. Nickel LME inventory lows are steepening, whilst their demand for Cathode chemistries and longer term supply/demand curve is increasing. Similarly graphite, cobalt, RE, etc. (IMF analysis Dec 2021).
I'd imagine if there is a decent sell off, many of these emerging battery supply chain companies will be hit hard, but the decent ones with plenty of cash, technology, projects and management teams with a global footprint will represent a significant bargain long term.
The secular de-globalization trend away from China risks and green movement will definitely feature in the risk / reward proposition and support the above segment.
also you do good stuff on real vision
Thanks, James. They are a very nice platform!
Whats the podcasts name? is it going on spotify? I CANT WAIT!
Eheh we can't reveal much more at the moment, but we promise it's coming really soon!
So succinct and clear. Thanks for this macro view. One question: Any chance you could elaborate on the view of a strengthening USD during this process?
I guess up to my friend Andreas to elaborate more!
Very happy to hear of your collaboration. I too can be fairly sure of one thing: it will be very good!
We hope so!
Great interview! Really looking forward to your and Andreas' new podcast series!!!
Stay tuned, it's coming soon!
What exactly is the USD reserve data?
"And I am even tempted to say that you should both buy the USD and duration (in most currencies) with an arm and a leg already now" Can't say it any more clearly than this as to strategy... Thanks!
BTW... thanks for the TREAT!
Welcome!
He doesn't get Inflation situation into the picture which is very different from previous scenarios. Is there a implicit assumption of transitory inflation?