International central bank Treasury Bond holders have been selling off their Treasuries as if they are afraid of losing their collective arses. Are they not "Bond Vigilantes"? They once made up 49% of T-Bond holders. Now they make up only 29%.
Jeffrey Gundlach, "the Bond King", has been dumping his fund's long-term Treasury Bonds and has replaced the with short-term Treasury Notes. Is he not a Bond Vigilante?
Yet your advice is to buy longer term T-Bonds yielding 4.50%. I personally don't have the testicularity to do so without some kind of assurance that a recession is on its way. Perhaps if Trump gets in, and really puts Elon Musk in charge of the economy, and Musk, like he did with Twitter, lays off truckloads of workers (only this time it will be Government workers), we might just see that kind of recession.
Why is the market responding to Trump? This started as a response to easy monetary policy from the Fed. They cut too much for where inflation is and longer yields responded.
Great analysis! I wonder if the market has already factored in and priced the possibility of a Trump victory? I'm referring to the possibility we might actually see a "sell the news" scenario if he wins.
I don't find the offer strange. Limited number discount deals are not uncommon. Alf is graciously and generously offering a discount to the first 50 people who sign-up within the next 3 days. Sounds like big institutional investors are already on board.
I feel like this offer is more for passionate small investors and speculators like me, and perhaps you too. This is a fantastic opportunity. To date, as a free subscriber, I have learned much from Alf's edifying work and appreciate him very much!
International central bank Treasury Bond holders have been selling off their Treasuries as if they are afraid of losing their collective arses. Are they not "Bond Vigilantes"? They once made up 49% of T-Bond holders. Now they make up only 29%.
Jeffrey Gundlach, "the Bond King", has been dumping his fund's long-term Treasury Bonds and has replaced the with short-term Treasury Notes. Is he not a Bond Vigilante?
Yet your advice is to buy longer term T-Bonds yielding 4.50%. I personally don't have the testicularity to do so without some kind of assurance that a recession is on its way. Perhaps if Trump gets in, and really puts Elon Musk in charge of the economy, and Musk, like he did with Twitter, lays off truckloads of workers (only this time it will be Government workers), we might just see that kind of recession.
Well done, Alf!
Great info — as always — thanks Alf 🙏
Great!
Why is the market responding to Trump? This started as a response to easy monetary policy from the Fed. They cut too much for where inflation is and longer yields responded.
2 words: Extend duration.
Great analysis! I wonder if the market has already factored in and priced the possibility of a Trump victory? I'm referring to the possibility we might actually see a "sell the news" scenario if he wins.
Hey Alf,
I really enjoy your work and detailed look into economic research.
What happens to the free subscribers? Will we still get the regular articles even after you have to focus on the insitutional demand?
Why would you be trying to sign up new subscribers yet inform us that there are limited numbers? Very strange
I don't find the offer strange. Limited number discount deals are not uncommon. Alf is graciously and generously offering a discount to the first 50 people who sign-up within the next 3 days. Sounds like big institutional investors are already on board.
I feel like this offer is more for passionate small investors and speculators like me, and perhaps you too. This is a fantastic opportunity. To date, as a free subscriber, I have learned much from Alf's edifying work and appreciate him very much!
Enjoy your weekends everyone 😊