Just FYI, to help others, there's an important typo in Alf's conclusions. He said the change supports his bearish thesis on European "bonds", but he wrote "rates". That clearly should say "bonds", since the relationship is inverse. I'd like to hear how much he thinks this will affect US treasuries in the intermediate term. I have a large position in TLT and am hoping the bottom is in for the cycle.
As a US investor, Alf's recommended etf's mentioned in the last 2 newsletters don't seem to be valid. $LJPY, mentioned today, is not recognized by my Charles Schwab brokerage. Am I missing something?
Powerful write up, Alf. Love the details here. Lot's of my traders were curious on why the USD/JPY fell so sharply. This makes sense!
This is deff gonna be a big move...JPY hasn't changed their Interest Rates since 2016!!!! In fact, they had negative interest rates. The banks were giving more money to the people in which they invested elsewhere in the world.
It'll now be coming back to the hands of the BoJ as you said if they decide to actually raise rates. Thank you so much for sharing the portfolio allocation. As a tactical trader myself, this helps tie things together BIG time.
Hello Alf, excellent and very helpful piece on Japan and the BoJ decision from last night. I'm wondering if you have written any other pieces on Japan in the past to get more background on this important economy or if there is a piece you might suggest written by a colleague or peer. Thanks very much and cheers!
Hi Alf, thank you for the piece. The hedging costs are a function of the significant rate differential. Why not trade the fx swaps market instead of purchasing yen against the dollar, 1 year usd jpy swaps narrowed 50 pips from -690 to -640 Yen pips. Shorting Usd jpy equals a 4.9% cost of carry (1 yr).
Do Japanese investors have to hedge the fx risk on their purchases of UST (other foreign bonds) ?
One quick question: what is the rational to look at 10Y UST yields minus the impact of hedging with a 1Y FX swap? Is this how the relevant accounts hedge their holdings? If so: any pointers as to why they prefer the 1Y FX swap to say a 10Y cross currency swap? This would match maturity of the bond and the term of the FX hedge. Is this due to liquidity/costs or are there other factors to consider?
Hi Alf, thankyou for your commentary on the Japanese rates change of policy, may I ask your opinion on shorting Japanese homebuilders/REITs, I have read that 70% of Japanese home loans are variable.
They seem a bit late to the party to me. The global recession is likely to remove any hawkish potential from all of the developed world central banks - they will all capitulate when they see unemployment increase significantly (inflation will also be going down). Is this different in Japan? Will inflation be increasing there when it's going down everywhere else?
I see your argument for buying the yen, but the Fed is also still hiking and even if inflation has topped and they don't hike beyond expectations (still a possibility), there are some reasonable rate differentials with the US, so UST are still preferred to holding yen, even if less so.
Also, I see a lot of assumptions going around Fintwit, but it might be a little early to tell how solid is the narrative that's going around about Kuroda's legacy and the BOJ's intentions for the near future. Thanks for the article!
Alf, you have a real talent for simplifying the complex. Kudos and thank you.
Just FYI, to help others, there's an important typo in Alf's conclusions. He said the change supports his bearish thesis on European "bonds", but he wrote "rates". That clearly should say "bonds", since the relationship is inverse. I'd like to hear how much he thinks this will affect US treasuries in the intermediate term. I have a large position in TLT and am hoping the bottom is in for the cycle.
As a US investor, Alf's recommended etf's mentioned in the last 2 newsletters don't seem to be valid. $LJPY, mentioned today, is not recognized by my Charles Schwab brokerage. Am I missing something?
Powerful write up, Alf. Love the details here. Lot's of my traders were curious on why the USD/JPY fell so sharply. This makes sense!
This is deff gonna be a big move...JPY hasn't changed their Interest Rates since 2016!!!! In fact, they had negative interest rates. The banks were giving more money to the people in which they invested elsewhere in the world.
It'll now be coming back to the hands of the BoJ as you said if they decide to actually raise rates. Thank you so much for sharing the portfolio allocation. As a tactical trader myself, this helps tie things together BIG time.
Thanks for answering my question re Fx. Terrific write-up that I'll have to read a couple more times to fully grasp.
Hello Alf, excellent and very helpful piece on Japan and the BoJ decision from last night. I'm wondering if you have written any other pieces on Japan in the past to get more background on this important economy or if there is a piece you might suggest written by a colleague or peer. Thanks very much and cheers!
Hi Alf, also would shorting CAD/YEN be better then shorting USD/YEN?
Hi Alf, thank you for the piece. The hedging costs are a function of the significant rate differential. Why not trade the fx swaps market instead of purchasing yen against the dollar, 1 year usd jpy swaps narrowed 50 pips from -690 to -640 Yen pips. Shorting Usd jpy equals a 4.9% cost of carry (1 yr).
Do Japanese investors have to hedge the fx risk on their purchases of UST (other foreign bonds) ?
Alf, I really like this, please keep them coming!
One quick question: what is the rational to look at 10Y UST yields minus the impact of hedging with a 1Y FX swap? Is this how the relevant accounts hedge their holdings? If so: any pointers as to why they prefer the 1Y FX swap to say a 10Y cross currency swap? This would match maturity of the bond and the term of the FX hedge. Is this due to liquidity/costs or are there other factors to consider?
Thanks
Hi Alf, thankyou for your commentary on the Japanese rates change of policy, may I ask your opinion on shorting Japanese homebuilders/REITs, I have read that 70% of Japanese home loans are variable.
They seem a bit late to the party to me. The global recession is likely to remove any hawkish potential from all of the developed world central banks - they will all capitulate when they see unemployment increase significantly (inflation will also be going down). Is this different in Japan? Will inflation be increasing there when it's going down everywhere else?
I see your argument for buying the yen, but the Fed is also still hiking and even if inflation has topped and they don't hike beyond expectations (still a possibility), there are some reasonable rate differentials with the US, so UST are still preferred to holding yen, even if less so.
Also, I see a lot of assumptions going around Fintwit, but it might be a little early to tell how solid is the narrative that's going around about Kuroda's legacy and the BOJ's intentions for the near future. Thanks for the article!
Interesting reaction in precious metals. I suspect because USD is the most important variable for them.
Merry Christmas Alf, & best of luck with your venture in the new year!
Thanks Alf. I really enjoy how quickly you respond to macro economic events! Tough day for commodity traders for sure.
Does this affect the carry trade substantially?
Successively a lots of top winners momentum trades are being shut