I accumulated a few hundred shares and I sold calls against them. Then, due to the monster rally, they got called away Friday. I figured I’ll buy more at slightly lower prices. I’m also accumulating some ZROZ too, good idea ALF or should we all stick with TLT?
If you can ever whole heartedly and without of doubt dive into TLT with a "this is going to be great" thought, would you consider TMF? It is a 3x leveraged bond EFT that mirrors TLT up and down 3x. I'm thinking about dipping my toe in, but still holding off. BTW, I listen to what Doubleline puts out on Youtube and podcasts and they're pro bonds not stocks. Doubleline is a great listen - just plain vanilla without any hype.
thanks for the reminder that some managers will be protecting themselves against the upside. I didn't think of that. (i.e the managers who have made a killing playing the downside)
On a path of ongoing improvement learning the system dynamics of macro (growth- inflation - credit zones) - my selection narrowed from half a dozen to Alf & (2 others on balance.)
Being a 75y young b-boomer (invested since the 70's - including futures than options) there was always a need to have a bit more science in a "seemingly" esoteric pro world (knowing CBOE pro friends well since the 80's)
Alf's approach is "Socratic" so learn from thought emulating real live DOING .
Some more practical background + suggestions here:
- Running since retirement (14 y) a state registered (BELGIAN) official private trust (my family office)
- Status private banking full non discretionary - non MIFID plus an IBRK Ireland brokerage.
- Experienced no go's on specific trading ideas MacroCompass from PB - ING ( which you know Alf..) although I have the "highest possible clearance. Even on said "for Europeans ETF's". I made a comment before relating to the " EU regulations" on the MacroCompass substack.
- I 'm familiar with SOFR including the options on it ; but will see if I get that order through tomorrow as a learning experiment. If not they will propose me alternatives.. will see
- Sorry to bring in EU stuff (lots of US followers here).
- Being an early bird convinced subscriber I look forward to the practical feasability in my environment; before I will move into fully pro or even plus.
- NOW : Alf delivers a pristine content & education to move the retailers like me to a higher level.
It is not an easy task in this "strange evolution" financial world. It requires competent mentors (ALF) and hard work
So I say let's do it, learn it, trade it and wish a brilliant future to Alf and our results.
Onis - give Alf a break, he's still relatively new to many people and his simple sentence only serves to introduce himself. There are so many people out there claiming expertise without ever having walked the walk, but Alf has and people need to know that.
So Alf, thanks for the "rally explanation" and the data supporting your thoughts. My explanation was a bit more broad (e.g. recency bias and FOMO), but dovetails well with your thoughts. As I've written before, I couldn't agree more re: Real Estate and I'm still perplexed by the run up and guessing people are buying the narrative without looking at the numbers. "Hope dies last" as they say in Austria. Any particular reason why you'd short XHB vs ITB (I've been tactically shorting ITB that past few months whenever it gets overbought)?
Lastly, stoked for the progression of your services and happy to be an Early Bird Subscriber. A couple of asks. I'm really keen to learn more about risk mgmt cause I think that is THE key to becoming a successful trader; please prioritize that in your educational series. Also, I've never traded SOFR futures and guessing a lot of folks haven't, so a little explanation would be helpful. Keep it up good Sir!
My point being is he hasnt walked the walk, he was long bonds druing a 40 year bull market, any clown can make money in a one direction market (some cant even manage that) he would have seriouusly been tested this year and liklely would have failed like eveyone else did...
People need to get into their thick skulls that NO ONE can predict the future and this is all just guess work.
My trades are public since January - it's been a good year, mostly due to risk management: small losses when I was wrong, large gains when I was right.
this is what I assumed. With a 56% win rate, one needs proper risk management discipline in order to reach anything close to 30% in a seesaw market like 2022.
While we are conversing Alfonso, may I ask a question? I am seriously considering signing up for the entry-level stuff, but I am a fairly unsophisticated KISS investor. How much of the assets of your long-only strategy would be options, covered calls and whatnot, and how much on the other hand would be ETFs that I could probably purchase with a Dublin-based IB account?
(Btw I am accredited as a pro investor, so no worries about UCITS or non-UCITS).
Actually the area between 1.5-1.75% is all covered in the call spread positive payout, so I would need to use closer strikes to come up with the exact percentage.
Even though I am de-accumulating assets at this stage of life these markets (equities and credit) effect everyone. Thank you for the proverbial "heads up" and the thoughtful critique of conditions you regularly provide.
can your second trade, the one on bearish RE, be played via ccys for ex US exposure in your view? i mean buying puts on a basket of high beta ccys like AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK vs i'd be tempted to say JPY but probably easier USD or CHF
This would be a very strong push to headline inflation, but interestingly it could even lower core inflation as it would take away discretionary spending budget from households.
Nevertheless, as this indicator leads growth by 3-4 quarters and inflation by 4-5 quarters, the July 2022 data gives you a look at what is likely to happen between now and summer 2023.
So the real question is, is it time to pile into TLT? Thank you for the great work.
My pleasure!
Bonds are starting to look really attractive now.
I am waiting for Powell to try his last pushbacks and then it's going to be time to seriously overweight fixed income.
I accumulated a few hundred shares and I sold calls against them. Then, due to the monster rally, they got called away Friday. I figured I’ll buy more at slightly lower prices. I’m also accumulating some ZROZ too, good idea ALF or should we all stick with TLT?
If you can ever whole heartedly and without of doubt dive into TLT with a "this is going to be great" thought, would you consider TMF? It is a 3x leveraged bond EFT that mirrors TLT up and down 3x. I'm thinking about dipping my toe in, but still holding off. BTW, I listen to what Doubleline puts out on Youtube and podcasts and they're pro bonds not stocks. Doubleline is a great listen - just plain vanilla without any hype.
Thanks for taking time to give us your thoughts.
You trade ideas - I have no idea how to execute them.
So the information provided in your new upper tier is definitely something I can't use (my fault).
I always wonder how many others are in the same boat as me.
I bet all of those that ask "is it time to buy TLT" are in the same boat as me.
Hi Dwayne!
The Long-Term Investor tier will only cover ETF, and from a long only perspective so very easy for everybody to access :)
Hi alf thank you for the great job! Is there any option with an etf to short home builders and real state?
Hi!
I highlighted a couple in the article both for US and European investors
Hi Alf, I am Alvise, an Italian independent financial advisor.
After having listened you on Wealthion podcast I started following the newsletter.
I was wondering for some time when you were going to start a new expanded service; for this reason today I subscribed the long term investor.
Look forward to explore it in January.
Best regards
Ps I agree that Cappuccino after 11 is something horrible but from time to time a macchiato after lunch is acceptable.
Thank you for coming on board!
Agreed on the Cappuccino :)
Just subscribed, excited for another year. Is there a place to see the long term etf portfolio
Great to have you on board!
Will the macro tools include the ability to see historical data on the instruments or is it only going to be point in time?
Absolutely yes, Nick.
And much much more: compare them, chart, look at correlations, make ratios/differences etc etc.
thanks for the reminder that some managers will be protecting themselves against the upside. I didn't think of that. (i.e the managers who have made a killing playing the downside)
Indeed, Didier. Coming from experience :)
Follower since the early start of Alf.
On a path of ongoing improvement learning the system dynamics of macro (growth- inflation - credit zones) - my selection narrowed from half a dozen to Alf & (2 others on balance.)
Being a 75y young b-boomer (invested since the 70's - including futures than options) there was always a need to have a bit more science in a "seemingly" esoteric pro world (knowing CBOE pro friends well since the 80's)
Alf's approach is "Socratic" so learn from thought emulating real live DOING .
Some more practical background + suggestions here:
- Running since retirement (14 y) a state registered (BELGIAN) official private trust (my family office)
- Status private banking full non discretionary - non MIFID plus an IBRK Ireland brokerage.
- Experienced no go's on specific trading ideas MacroCompass from PB - ING ( which you know Alf..) although I have the "highest possible clearance. Even on said "for Europeans ETF's". I made a comment before relating to the " EU regulations" on the MacroCompass substack.
- I 'm familiar with SOFR including the options on it ; but will see if I get that order through tomorrow as a learning experiment. If not they will propose me alternatives.. will see
- Sorry to bring in EU stuff (lots of US followers here).
- Being an early bird convinced subscriber I look forward to the practical feasability in my environment; before I will move into fully pro or even plus.
- NOW : Alf delivers a pristine content & education to move the retailers like me to a higher level.
It is not an easy task in this "strange evolution" financial world. It requires competent mentors (ALF) and hard work
So I say let's do it, learn it, trade it and wish a brilliant future to Alf and our results.
Take Care
-
-
-
Fantastic feedback, thanks!
The EU feedback is welcome and I'll make sure trade ideas and portfolios are as replicable as they can be for EU investors too.
Thanks for becoming a subscriber and again for the kind words :)
Onis - give Alf a break, he's still relatively new to many people and his simple sentence only serves to introduce himself. There are so many people out there claiming expertise without ever having walked the walk, but Alf has and people need to know that.
So Alf, thanks for the "rally explanation" and the data supporting your thoughts. My explanation was a bit more broad (e.g. recency bias and FOMO), but dovetails well with your thoughts. As I've written before, I couldn't agree more re: Real Estate and I'm still perplexed by the run up and guessing people are buying the narrative without looking at the numbers. "Hope dies last" as they say in Austria. Any particular reason why you'd short XHB vs ITB (I've been tactically shorting ITB that past few months whenever it gets overbought)?
Lastly, stoked for the progression of your services and happy to be an Early Bird Subscriber. A couple of asks. I'm really keen to learn more about risk mgmt cause I think that is THE key to becoming a successful trader; please prioritize that in your educational series. Also, I've never traded SOFR futures and guessing a lot of folks haven't, so a little explanation would be helpful. Keep it up good Sir!
Hi James!
No particular reason on XHB vs ITB, the main rationale remains the same and we agree there :)
Risk management will be at the forefront of my analysis, portfolio and courses because you are completely right.
And in the premium services in 2023 I'll take time to explain the structure of every trade indeed :)
My point being is he hasnt walked the walk, he was long bonds druing a 40 year bull market, any clown can make money in a one direction market (some cant even manage that) he would have seriouusly been tested this year and liklely would have failed like eveyone else did...
People need to get into their thick skulls that NO ONE can predict the future and this is all just guess work.
I think anybody who made 30% this year has been "seriously tested", and has proven their mettle.
well, based on his trades, he did.
And I assume he posted them relatively real-time, did he not?
Yes, I am up 28% as we speak.
My trades are public since January - it's been a good year, mostly due to risk management: small losses when I was wrong, large gains when I was right.
this is what I assumed. With a 56% win rate, one needs proper risk management discipline in order to reach anything close to 30% in a seesaw market like 2022.
While we are conversing Alfonso, may I ask a question? I am seriously considering signing up for the entry-level stuff, but I am a fairly unsophisticated KISS investor. How much of the assets of your long-only strategy would be options, covered calls and whatnot, and how much on the other hand would be ETFs that I could probably purchase with a Dublin-based IB account?
(Btw I am accredited as a pro investor, so no worries about UCITS or non-UCITS).
too early to call a slow down on rates!
there is a lot of stimmie, and otherwise cash on the sidelines....
quantitative tightening is slow and just launched!!!
some bonds are going off the balance sheet.
the fed has a lot of work to do and unwinding the balance sheet is necessary to combat inflation.
Great job ! Kudos
Thank you!
I subscribed to the all round investor a minute ago.
I am a financial professional and I think your work helped me through the year.
I am looking forward to jump in the new platform.
Un abbraccio da Castelfranco Veneto (TV).
Grazie per essere diventato un cliente, Andrea!
hi Alf, great piece again thanks.
I'm not the call spread 98.50/75 at 2.5cts implies 10% of FF at 1.5%, I'd rather say 10%% FF at 1.25% instead, no? Thanks again
Hi David, very good eye!
Actually the area between 1.5-1.75% is all covered in the call spread positive payout, so I would need to use closer strikes to come up with the exact percentage.
Yet you are in principle correct :)
Even though I am de-accumulating assets at this stage of life these markets (equities and credit) effect everyone. Thank you for the proverbial "heads up" and the thoughtful critique of conditions you regularly provide.
My pleasure! :)
can your second trade, the one on bearish RE, be played via ccys for ex US exposure in your view? i mean buying puts on a basket of high beta ccys like AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK vs i'd be tempted to say JPY but probably easier USD or CHF
Ciao Daniele!
Proxy-trading always tricky, but I get your point :)
I'd say CAD, SEK and AUD the best candidates and I'd always play it ''safe'' with USD and CHF on the long leg?
And if I was to “suggest” crude prices >$115 in 2023 how would this change your view of inflationary pressures?
This would be a very strong push to headline inflation, but interestingly it could even lower core inflation as it would take away discretionary spending budget from households.
Could you update your credit impulse chart since July so that we can really see the trend downward of earnings?
Working on it :)
Nevertheless, as this indicator leads growth by 3-4 quarters and inflation by 4-5 quarters, the July 2022 data gives you a look at what is likely to happen between now and summer 2023.