Listen now | The softer than expected CPI print spurred a massive rally: let's look into it.
So the real question is, is it time to pile into TLT? Thank you for the great work.￼
Thanks for taking time to give us your thoughts.
You trade ideas - I have no idea how to execute them.
So the information provided in your new upper tier is definitely something I can't use (my fault).
I always wonder how many others are in the same boat as me.
I bet all of those that ask "is it time to buy TLT" are in the same boat as me.
Hi alf thank you for the great job! Is there any option with an etf to short home builders and real state?
Hi Alf, I am Alvise, an Italian independent financial advisor.
After having listened you on Wealthion podcast I started following the newsletter.
I was wondering for some time when you were going to start a new expanded service; for this reason today I subscribed the long term investor.
Look forward to explore it in January.
Ps I agree that Cappuccino after 11 is something horrible but from time to time a macchiato after lunch is acceptable.
Just subscribed, excited for another year. Is there a place to see the long term etf portfolio
Will the macro tools include the ability to see historical data on the instruments or is it only going to be point in time?
thanks for the reminder that some managers will be protecting themselves against the upside. I didn't think of that. (i.e the managers who have made a killing playing the downside)
Follower since the early start of Alf.
On a path of ongoing improvement learning the system dynamics of macro (growth- inflation - credit zones) - my selection narrowed from half a dozen to Alf & (2 others on balance.)
Being a 75y young b-boomer (invested since the 70's - including futures than options) there was always a need to have a bit more science in a "seemingly" esoteric pro world (knowing CBOE pro friends well since the 80's)
Alf's approach is "Socratic" so learn from thought emulating real live DOING .
Some more practical background + suggestions here:
- Running since retirement (14 y) a state registered (BELGIAN) official private trust (my family office)
- Status private banking full non discretionary - non MIFID plus an IBRK Ireland brokerage.
- Experienced no go's on specific trading ideas MacroCompass from PB - ING ( which you know Alf..) although I have the "highest possible clearance. Even on said "for Europeans ETF's". I made a comment before relating to the " EU regulations" on the MacroCompass substack.
- I 'm familiar with SOFR including the options on it ; but will see if I get that order through tomorrow as a learning experiment. If not they will propose me alternatives.. will see
- Sorry to bring in EU stuff (lots of US followers here).
- Being an early bird convinced subscriber I look forward to the practical feasability in my environment; before I will move into fully pro or even plus.
- NOW : Alf delivers a pristine content & education to move the retailers like me to a higher level.
It is not an easy task in this "strange evolution" financial world. It requires competent mentors (ALF) and hard work
So I say let's do it, learn it, trade it and wish a brilliant future to Alf and our results.
Onis - give Alf a break, he's still relatively new to many people and his simple sentence only serves to introduce himself. There are so many people out there claiming expertise without ever having walked the walk, but Alf has and people need to know that.
So Alf, thanks for the "rally explanation" and the data supporting your thoughts. My explanation was a bit more broad (e.g. recency bias and FOMO), but dovetails well with your thoughts. As I've written before, I couldn't agree more re: Real Estate and I'm still perplexed by the run up and guessing people are buying the narrative without looking at the numbers. "Hope dies last" as they say in Austria. Any particular reason why you'd short XHB vs ITB (I've been tactically shorting ITB that past few months whenever it gets overbought)?
Lastly, stoked for the progression of your services and happy to be an Early Bird Subscriber. A couple of asks. I'm really keen to learn more about risk mgmt cause I think that is THE key to becoming a successful trader; please prioritize that in your educational series. Also, I've never traded SOFR futures and guessing a lot of folks haven't, so a little explanation would be helpful. Keep it up good Sir!
Great job ! Kudos
I subscribed to the all round investor a minute ago.
I am a financial professional and I think your work helped me through the year.
I am looking forward to jump in the new platform.
Un abbraccio da Castelfranco Veneto (TV).
hi Alf, great piece again thanks.
I'm not the call spread 98.50/75 at 2.5cts implies 10% of FF at 1.5%, I'd rather say 10%% FF at 1.25% instead, no? Thanks again
Even though I am de-accumulating assets at this stage of life these markets (equities and credit) effect everyone. Thank you for the proverbial "heads up" and the thoughtful critique of conditions you regularly provide.
can your second trade, the one on bearish RE, be played via ccys for ex US exposure in your view? i mean buying puts on a basket of high beta ccys like AUD, NZD, SEK, NOK vs i'd be tempted to say JPY but probably easier USD or CHF
And if I was to “suggest” crude prices >$115 in 2023 how would this change your view of inflationary pressures?
Could you update your credit impulse chart since July so that we can really see the trend downward of earnings?