49 Comments
Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Alf, if your prognostications are correct, then wouldn't investing in the much overlooked (but somewhat illiquid) 20-Year Treasury Bonds, non-callable Agencies, like the TVAs, and 5-year, non-callable "Brokered" CDs be the easiest and most risk free way for one to make 30% to 40% on his/her money, over the next three years?

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Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Alf.. I am a big fan, and excited to join the premium content. My background is in Equity derivatives, so could you please please please start with a basic primer on things such as OIS, swaption, etc.. These are products that i did not trade previously, and i would a appreciate you gloss over these instruments and others before we jump in the deep end.

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Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

When I read the headline "The Bond Market Is Talking: Are You Listening?", my first thought was that the bond market talked out of its ass a lot this year. In particular, if memory serves, when it completely mispriced terminal rate just a few months ago. It turns out you are kind of saying the same thing: bond market is wrong again.

Now a couple of questions if I may.

1. If you are confident in your prediction of fed aggressively cutting rates in 2023 then why you chose a narrow spread trade instead of simply a long call? And why the maturity is Jun-24, not earlier?

2. Looking at your trade sheet, I don't understand how you made money on the EURUSD trade. You entered at 1.0 and exited at 1.0. Where did the gravy come from?

If I can make a suggestion, your trading sheet needs the "size" column. E.g. your short on SPX where you entered at 4385 and exited at 3750 which is more like 17% profit if you were all in. So the inquiring minds should figure that the bet size was around 25% of your paper capital.

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Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Alf -- New Sub and Huge Fan -- please please could you track Global Liquidity, DXY and other things to help Crypto Hodlers ??? Many of us are ETH-bulls from following Raoul Pal but need more help on understanding global Macro -- TYVM in Advance

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Nov 21, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf, thankyou for the commentary, it was insightful as usual, I am in agreement with most of your thesis however, I am also concerned about your inflation back to 2% by late 2023 forecast. Surely with elevated energy prices, relative to where they were in 2019, increased volatility in food prices due to climate change, certain areas of manufacturing being moved away from China eg advanced chips etc it will take longer for inflation to fall to pre covid levels. I understand that with such high debt levels we will all spend less but some of the inflation we are experiencing is supply driven not just demand driven. What factor gives you the most confidence inflation will have a rapid decline in late 23?

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Nov 19, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf, I've now gotten into Treasury Bond Futures (ZBZ2022) for the December contracts. No positions yet, just observing price action w/ your macro knowledge. The idea of flatteners is still a bit difficult to grasp. For example 2s10s flatteners. Does this mean you are short 2 year bonds and long 10 year bonds at the same time? Via a Futures contract or via Put/Call spreads? As always, love these articles and the consistent responses!! Thank you!

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Nov 19, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf,

Every segment of your dashboard has a column with the variation and which has a color-coding mechanism.

Compared to what period is that variation? Compared with last week, with last month, is it YTD?

Sorry if it is a stupid question.

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Nov 19, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hey Alf,

Really interested in your paid products, could you give us a tour?

I'm a retail investor and trying to up my game but would like a preview of what im getting

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Nov 18, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf,

First, I have been following you for quite some time and have joined your new 2023 platform. Hopefully, I will be able to adequately understand the technical terms you have used and learn lots of other new things from you in the macro journey ahead.

Next, following your previous reply to rich beachboy, can you elaborate more on why you have chosen the short end instead of the long end? As a novice investor with no experience on call/put, can I simply just buy TLT to reflect the thesis and it also has a better upside then SHY?

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Nov 18, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Will we be able to see charts of the data in the dashboard ourselves at some point? I would love to be able to see and play around with the series in addition to just seeing the current value.

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Nov 18, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Tyvm 🙏

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Nov 18, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Hi Alf. Thank you so much for responding back. I will check them out! God's blessings upon you and your family. Peter

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Nov 18, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Alf, isn't there a typo here? It should say 2022 at the end, right?

And when there is less uncertainty around such an important market driver, investors can be marginally more aggressive in taking risks as the bond market behaves better and it reduces some of the explosive volatility it brought to their portfolios in 2023.

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Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Thank you Alfonso! Very cool analysis!

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Nov 17, 2022·edited Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

Cutting through to the meat for the average ignorant retail investor (ME), are you saying that you favor the 1-3 year Treasury (SHY or I use VGSH) instead of TLT or similar 20 year+ Treasury Bonds for the next 12-18 months?

This article was chocked full of complex info. Thank you!

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Nov 17, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

As a retail investor I am a big fan and therefore joined the comprehensive macro platform to learn from the premium content. Must say that I have to crack my brains over the content which of course is mind challenging. I loved the item The Bond Market Is Talking but as more often your tactical ideas are difficult to trade. Nowhere I can find ticker SFRM4. Could you perhaps disclose the Globex Code on this SOFR option which I hope to find on my IBKR platform.

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