Hi Alf, German and French inflation were both negative MoM - how do we reconcile this with the idea that yoy core euro inflation will keep marching higher for many months?
Do you have any good data on the amount of excess consumer savings waiting to be put to work in China?
You just have to go to the ECB website and read one of the 100 speeches done by Schnabel in the last year. It’s free! No subscription! As to China savings, JP morgan estimates are around 4.7% GDP. There is an extensive article on the topic in today’s Financial Times Unhedged letter. It requires subscription.
Well done, Alf thank you. As a push back, does the CPI print really matter? Outside of short-term reaction functions you mention? It seems we've made our bed already or the cycle has made it for us.
Side note: I've spent too long looking this morning already through past pieces; was it you that had the beautiful, clean chart of ISM PMIs overlaid on GDP growth and/or equity market? That chart is a novel in one page and cannot find it. Anyway, no worries and thanks for your work as always
I worry that Central Bank actions will make the inevitable recession worse than it needs to be and so wish that (if it is inevitable) that indicators like CPI would turn down convincingly sooner rather than later, before they can do too much damage.
There was a surprisingly close relation betwen ISM and Earnings per share that I remember surprised me at the time.
Hey Alf, thanks for providing still some free content for us university students.. :)
there's always something new to learn in ur pieces.
Un saluto da un fan italiano!
"Subscribe to The Macro Compass to read the rest"...I Am a paid subscriber, why the shortened report?
You received the full report yesterday, Jan :) it's a separate email with a PDF attached, and the report is also available in your TMC login area
Hi Alf, German and French inflation were both negative MoM - how do we reconcile this with the idea that yoy core euro inflation will keep marching higher for many months?
Do you have any good data on the amount of excess consumer savings waiting to be put to work in China?
Thanks,
James
What were the month over month numbers for those months last year?
You just have to go to the ECB website and read one of the 100 speeches done by Schnabel in the last year. It’s free! No subscription! As to China savings, JP morgan estimates are around 4.7% GDP. There is an extensive article on the topic in today’s Financial Times Unhedged letter. It requires subscription.
Thanks Alf. More food for thought.
You said that the US portfolio is the preferred one even for Europe-based investors.
Should we be hedging the currency if we use it, or is the global dollar shortage just going to add more to the unhedged returns for Europeans?
Well done, Alf thank you. As a push back, does the CPI print really matter? Outside of short-term reaction functions you mention? It seems we've made our bed already or the cycle has made it for us.
Side note: I've spent too long looking this morning already through past pieces; was it you that had the beautiful, clean chart of ISM PMIs overlaid on GDP growth and/or equity market? That chart is a novel in one page and cannot find it. Anyway, no worries and thanks for your work as always
I worry that Central Bank actions will make the inevitable recession worse than it needs to be and so wish that (if it is inevitable) that indicators like CPI would turn down convincingly sooner rather than later, before they can do too much damage.
There was a surprisingly close relation betwen ISM and Earnings per share that I remember surprised me at the time.
https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/back-to-2001#details
Fantastic - thank you for that, Roger
can you pls put a link at the bottom to make it easy for existing subscribers?