If the Boom/Bust cycles going forward are going to be far more extreme, please kindly help us track the Global Liquidity moves/cycles because it is nearly impossible for us to do that on our own. Has China pivoted of late and injecting liquidity again?
Also we would like your view on the DOLLAR DXY as much as you can gauge from the bond markets 🙏🙏
Nov 20, 2022·edited Nov 20, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
One of your best Alf which is saying a lot. Thank you! The transmission of wealth to the middle amd lower class that rich beachboy speaks off is crucial else, the political unrest leads to cataclysmic black swan events like Revolution. Unfortunately unless everyone evolves into an equity owning class, the only real options are real estate and the property owning class is being rapidly depleted in the middle classes due to the QT rate increases....Inflation kills this class very rapidly...and this leads to nation upending events!
Love your 30k view Alf. Volatility and swings are here to stay. On the ground it is shaking. The pressure is on to shift focus to profit over growth. Because of declining western labor demographics and reduced global labor movements, employers have no choice but to follow Elon’s lead and cut staff to do much more with less. Seems like a hard landing for some willing to work but not all.
I love this perspective. The best thinking comes from timeless principles, not from case-specific research. This piece, like most of your pieces, is a reminder to get back to high-level principles and analyze from there. Thanks Alf
Excellent write-up as per usual! How does the desperately needed tax receipts driven by asset price inflation fit into your "2023 base case"? Do you expect a massive Fed pivot warranting a reflexive overtightening late-2023? Or, slow disinflation being met with impatient policy decisions?
Hi Alf! Thank you for some of the very best content out there, being an amateur and no financial backrgound, I find it helpful and fascinating! I would like to subscribe for the paid service. One thing that confuses me - the discount code seems to grant a 20% reduction, while the promo text on the top says that you pay for 8 months out of 12. Did I miss something about the numbers?
Alf this is a wonderful macro summary - an important but perhaps irrelevant question is: are these expected boom/bust cycles we're likely to see still less severe than if they were organic, without central bank/fiscal intervention? That was part of the promise of this new QE age, no? Less severe cycles on the edges? Is that going to become a myth?
Hi Alf! Great write up. Want to push back some WRT private debt levels. Even though there might be specific country stories in the whole the pandemic caused mostly public debt to go up while households and corporations delevered.
Tyvm MacroKing Alf:
If the Boom/Bust cycles going forward are going to be far more extreme, please kindly help us track the Global Liquidity moves/cycles because it is nearly impossible for us to do that on our own. Has China pivoted of late and injecting liquidity again?
Also we would like your view on the DOLLAR DXY as much as you can gauge from the bond markets 🙏🙏
Many thanks again in advance
We have to learn how to short and buy options
Ciao Alf, you didn't mention anything about the role of disruptive tech in your excellent macro perspective. it should play a role right?
One of your best Alf which is saying a lot. Thank you! The transmission of wealth to the middle amd lower class that rich beachboy speaks off is crucial else, the political unrest leads to cataclysmic black swan events like Revolution. Unfortunately unless everyone evolves into an equity owning class, the only real options are real estate and the property owning class is being rapidly depleted in the middle classes due to the QT rate increases....Inflation kills this class very rapidly...and this leads to nation upending events!
Love your 30k view Alf. Volatility and swings are here to stay. On the ground it is shaking. The pressure is on to shift focus to profit over growth. Because of declining western labor demographics and reduced global labor movements, employers have no choice but to follow Elon’s lead and cut staff to do much more with less. Seems like a hard landing for some willing to work but not all.
I love this perspective. The best thinking comes from timeless principles, not from case-specific research. This piece, like most of your pieces, is a reminder to get back to high-level principles and analyze from there. Thanks Alf
Excellent write-up as per usual! How does the desperately needed tax receipts driven by asset price inflation fit into your "2023 base case"? Do you expect a massive Fed pivot warranting a reflexive overtightening late-2023? Or, slow disinflation being met with impatient policy decisions?
You always produce such valuable content. Keep it up
Ok i will need to make my own.
Just to be acurate My parents are born in Matera I was born in Canada, My wife is from Salerno. we go almst annually
I love your podcasts
I' M Southern Italian Too. My Pizza is Pretty good though. How can I get a t-shirt?
Hi Alf! Thank you for some of the very best content out there, being an amateur and no financial backrgound, I find it helpful and fascinating! I would like to subscribe for the paid service. One thing that confuses me - the discount code seems to grant a 20% reduction, while the promo text on the top says that you pay for 8 months out of 12. Did I miss something about the numbers?
Are there still any early spots left?
Alf this is a wonderful macro summary - an important but perhaps irrelevant question is: are these expected boom/bust cycles we're likely to see still less severe than if they were organic, without central bank/fiscal intervention? That was part of the promise of this new QE age, no? Less severe cycles on the edges? Is that going to become a myth?
Hi Alf! Great write up. Want to push back some WRT private debt levels. Even though there might be specific country stories in the whole the pandemic caused mostly public debt to go up while households and corporations delevered.
Alf you have to try ritornelli biscuits with your cappuccino in the morning, as a fellow Italian I’m telling you it’s a must
"There's a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing"