Thanks for the great work Alf. In addition to the z-score for changes in the VAMS dashboard would it be good to show the z-score for the absolute value of the market metrics relative to their historical 10 year range?
Thanks Alf great stuff. I'm wondering if the need to finance the budgetary and the current account is not the primary thing driving interest rates up in the US. Consider that the 6 month bond is at 4.8% more than a percentage point above the ten year rate. Is the rest of the world looking for a medium of exchange to replace the $US dollar. What is the attitude in Japan and China? What is the effect of the war on the US balance of payments? Is the US running out of puff? Is the US catching the British disease?
Hi Alfonso, I asked this a few weeks ago, but it probably went unnoticed in one of those long threads.
About the TMC Macro ETF Portfolio, I am a fairly unsophisticated mostly-long accredited EU investor, i.e. I can buy both UCITS and U.S. securities. I am not so experienced with options, so can you confirm that the Macro ETF Portfolio really employs at least 80% ETFs? How often does it go short?
And would the strategy require constant, say hourly monitoring for good risk and money management, or would fixed or dynamic stops like IB offers be sufficient?
In the latest (Jan 10) TMC report, you mention allocations to the Long ETF portfolio remain unchanged.
How would you suggest dollar cost averaging in that portfolio under those circumstances? (i.e. I have $XX to add this week, but you made the buy recommendations 1+ week ago... Does it still make sense to buy into the ETFs this week?)
In the "G5 Credit Impulse says..." graph, what do you mean by "lags by 4 quarters". Does this mean that the data from the last 4 quarters isn't available yet? Or is the graph intentionally moved back by 4 quarters in order to show alignment of trends?
For Survival of economies you suggest very low rates ( .25 and .5 ) . Savers have been crushed by these low rates . Now that Japanese and Chinese savers will stop financing US corporate , govt and household debt shouldn’t American and European savers get paid better to finance this debt . US treasury has been accommodated by Fed . Present rates are still a rip off of savers . How long will it go on . Between low rates and high taxes there is really no incentive to save.
I wish the TMC subscriber service had a comments section like this.
You referred to the MC community, but it isn't a community without communication.
Alf, have you considered launching this etf portfolio on quantbase ?
Interaction with the community is everything
Thanks for the great work Alf. In addition to the z-score for changes in the VAMS dashboard would it be good to show the z-score for the absolute value of the market metrics relative to their historical 10 year range?
Thanks Alf. I truly appreciate your tweets and the Macro Compass newsletter. Keep up the good work. :)
Hi Alf,
do you consider the euro to be a reasonably defensive position in 2023 ( quadrant 4 cash ) or <dollar?
Many thanks
Thanks Alf great stuff. I'm wondering if the need to finance the budgetary and the current account is not the primary thing driving interest rates up in the US. Consider that the 6 month bond is at 4.8% more than a percentage point above the ten year rate. Is the rest of the world looking for a medium of exchange to replace the $US dollar. What is the attitude in Japan and China? What is the effect of the war on the US balance of payments? Is the US running out of puff? Is the US catching the British disease?
Hi Alfonso, I asked this a few weeks ago, but it probably went unnoticed in one of those long threads.
About the TMC Macro ETF Portfolio, I am a fairly unsophisticated mostly-long accredited EU investor, i.e. I can buy both UCITS and U.S. securities. I am not so experienced with options, so can you confirm that the Macro ETF Portfolio really employs at least 80% ETFs? How often does it go short?
And would the strategy require constant, say hourly monitoring for good risk and money management, or would fixed or dynamic stops like IB offers be sufficient?
Thanks! PN is fine if you prefer.
Thanks Alf!
Hi Alf,
In the latest (Jan 10) TMC report, you mention allocations to the Long ETF portfolio remain unchanged.
How would you suggest dollar cost averaging in that portfolio under those circumstances? (i.e. I have $XX to add this week, but you made the buy recommendations 1+ week ago... Does it still make sense to buy into the ETFs this week?)
How can we recalculate the Credit impulse using last updated data from 3rd party?
Alf, arguably, this is a destabilizer. What's worked in the past, may not work in the future. The end of QE?
In the "G5 Credit Impulse says..." graph, what do you mean by "lags by 4 quarters". Does this mean that the data from the last 4 quarters isn't available yet? Or is the graph intentionally moved back by 4 quarters in order to show alignment of trends?
Thanks for the post!
Alf, please check your email (outlook)
Hello Alf
For Survival of economies you suggest very low rates ( .25 and .5 ) . Savers have been crushed by these low rates . Now that Japanese and Chinese savers will stop financing US corporate , govt and household debt shouldn’t American and European savers get paid better to finance this debt . US treasury has been accommodated by Fed . Present rates are still a rip off of savers . How long will it go on . Between low rates and high taxes there is really no incentive to save.