Jan 25, 2022·edited Jan 25, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Hi Alf, thanks for your work, as always great great quality. A question crossed my mind, what if your credit impulse fail you this time ? The environment today doesn't really look like anything we had since 2015 (starting point of the chart), what if fiscal stimulus, Crypto/NFT/Metaverse made people more independent. It's really a basic question without big rational behind I was just wondering what would be the implication in your thinking process and your trades :)
(I am reading the entire Taleb collection at the moment, I think it starts to get to me haha)
Thanks! How are you sure you are not "early" on in the growth slow down? Sure it is showing weakness, but recall the 2+T on consumer b/s also last couple of days I began to consider that monetary acts with a lag, so taper will take some time to hit 1st stocks and 2nd real econ.
Thank you very much for writing this post. I thought the rise in inflation was decreasing real yields (the plot above with the evolution of UST 30Y real yields points in this direction), but here you talk about "the abrupt rise in real yields". Where is that rise in real yields happening?
Alf, I have really enjoyed your work on RVBD and interviews with Darius. Big fan. WhaThis may be too granular but as it relates to portfolio construction do you build your positions incrementally to get to a full allocation or do set full allocation in one trade and let your discipline/rules flow from there? You’re very generous replying to everyone and what you share here is outstanding. Thanks.
Hi Alf, Great interview on Real Vision on money. Can you explain please...... I understand that QE means that the Fed is swapping Reserves for Treasury bonds, so there is no real change in debt. Looking at the expansion of the Fed balance sheet form 2008 to 2022, how has this debt been created? Brilliant interviews, keep them coming!
I notice in your trade table there is one column labeled as monthly vol, I understand it’s 10 year monthly return of certain asset or stock, but how do you calculate this number? I spend some time trying to do it, my number seems a bit off from yours. Could elaborate on that?
When you have 2% stop and you have 6 trades and if SL hits on 3 and rest 3 yet to reach target, what do you do? Move the stops on open position to entry?
Hello Alfonso ,
I AM HUGE FAN OF YOUR ANALYSIS .
Thank you for helping peopl.
Hi Alf, seeing you long on chinese Real Estate, what are your thoughts on chinese HY, very tilted towards real estate developers? Thanks
Good call on oil Alf. Let me itroduce myself, my name is Marcus I am your new disciple.
Hi Alf,
Interesting take on CHINA macro. Any word of caution against a LONG gold position here?
Hi Alf, thanks for your work, as always great great quality. A question crossed my mind, what if your credit impulse fail you this time ? The environment today doesn't really look like anything we had since 2015 (starting point of the chart), what if fiscal stimulus, Crypto/NFT/Metaverse made people more independent. It's really a basic question without big rational behind I was just wondering what would be the implication in your thinking process and your trades :)
(I am reading the entire Taleb collection at the moment, I think it starts to get to me haha)
Thanks! How are you sure you are not "early" on in the growth slow down? Sure it is showing weakness, but recall the 2+T on consumer b/s also last couple of days I began to consider that monetary acts with a lag, so taper will take some time to hit 1st stocks and 2nd real econ.
Alf, when you say you watch '5y forward, 5y US real yields', do you mean 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate (T5YIFR) minus inflation?
Hi Alf,
Thank you very much for writing this post. I thought the rise in inflation was decreasing real yields (the plot above with the evolution of UST 30Y real yields points in this direction), but here you talk about "the abrupt rise in real yields". Where is that rise in real yields happening?
Best regards
Javier
Thank you.
Alf, I have really enjoyed your work on RVBD and interviews with Darius. Big fan. WhaThis may be too granular but as it relates to portfolio construction do you build your positions incrementally to get to a full allocation or do set full allocation in one trade and let your discipline/rules flow from there? You’re very generous replying to everyone and what you share here is outstanding. Thanks.
Hi Alf, Great interview on Real Vision on money. Can you explain please...... I understand that QE means that the Fed is swapping Reserves for Treasury bonds, so there is no real change in debt. Looking at the expansion of the Fed balance sheet form 2008 to 2022, how has this debt been created? Brilliant interviews, keep them coming!
Hi Alf,
I notice in your trade table there is one column labeled as monthly vol, I understand it’s 10 year monthly return of certain asset or stock, but how do you calculate this number? I spend some time trying to do it, my number seems a bit off from yours. Could elaborate on that?
Many thanks
David
Hi Alf,
thanks for this article. I am wondering why you are in your long term portfolio not holding any real estates? Could you explain that a little bit?
Hi Alf, where can we track your portfolio?
could you provide me the link for your portfolio .
When you have 2% stop and you have 6 trades and if SL hits on 3 and rest 3 yet to reach target, what do you do? Move the stops on open position to entry?