I would very much like to see a "long-only ETF portfolio with a medium/long term horizon (1y+) and perhaps use as a benchmark a 60/40 portfolio to measure performance"
I wonder if you are too optimistic about inflation. Even though the Fed is trying to tighten it is not clear that inflation will respond. Much of energy inflation precedes Ukraine and is driven by the regulatory hell the administration is posing on US energy production and not demand.
I guess I am extremely bearish on rates. I am assuming that inflation is driven more by fiscal policy and a pandemic hangover. I don't see the Fed being able to tame inflation. I also think the Fed is beginning to panic. I find it very odd that extremely dovish members such as Brainard and Kaskari are now suddenly saying the Fed will no longer be accommodative and QE will be a sudden QT. Policy reversals don't normally play out very well ;(
Hi Alf, I also like the idea of the long-only ETF portfolio! A question in the meantime: if you had not yet invested and considering the current Quadrant 4 situation described in your article, would you wait out the hiking steps before entering the market (long)? Thanks
Alf, love this report and your framework is great. I would love to see tracking an ETF portfolio - as I am attempting to invest in this way.
Rather than a 1 dimensional long list of long / short ETFs; I would love to see this structured with balanced allocations in mind. For example, in Quadrant 4, what general allocations should be to bonds and bond proxies? 40% Would this be different in the other Quadrants?
Also how to manage risks with position sizing? For example, if Quadrant 4, SPY puts (or VXX) could be a volatility allocation, but certainly its not a great idea to risk more than x% of the portfolio on a single trade.
Would really appreciate long-only ETF portfolio. I am not a sophisticated investor and keeping it simple would be great. When I do short it is w/ short ETF's so not sure if that is something you would consider adding as well. Love your work - there are only 3 folks I follow and respect and you are definitely 1 of them.
Hi Alfonso, the other 2 are Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) and @INArteCarloDoss (don't know who he is but seems to be pretty spot on, above my pay grade in for some of his stuff though I get the idea, I might not make it into @kittysquiddy new blog he is starting). I look what all 3 of you guys are saying and go from there. This world is crazy nuts and I lost my shorts in 2008, lost them again in gold in 2012 (thought the Fed printed money but thanks to guys like you know better now) and can't afford to lose my shorts any more - got kids to raise and put through college. I do appreciate your writings.
Excellent post as always Alf. I am sure you are aware how most investors are short duration here and positioned for higher equity prices so your contrarian call has even more value. Would love to see a 60/40 ETF portfolio. thanks for your work.
Hello Alf, great piece of work. For the ETF long only, there is also value in othe areas (other than US). Would love to see exposure to other regions too ! China Tech for exemple, or EU Defense and Air
By all means a long-only model ETF portfolio is welcome - esp one that takes into account your macro thoughts on how policies will impact markets in the year to come.
I would very much like to see a "long-only ETF portfolio with a medium/long term horizon (1y+) and perhaps use as a benchmark a 60/40 portfolio to measure performance"
Will do! :)
Thank you!
Would love to see the long only portfolio!
Alright, will do!
I wonder if you are too optimistic about inflation. Even though the Fed is trying to tighten it is not clear that inflation will respond. Much of energy inflation precedes Ukraine and is driven by the regulatory hell the administration is posing on US energy production and not demand.
True indeed. I stressed out how supply constraints are a serious component not to underestimate here.
I guess I am extremely bearish on rates. I am assuming that inflation is driven more by fiscal policy and a pandemic hangover. I don't see the Fed being able to tame inflation. I also think the Fed is beginning to panic. I find it very odd that extremely dovish members such as Brainard and Kaskari are now suddenly saying the Fed will no longer be accommodative and QE will be a sudden QT. Policy reversals don't normally play out very well ;(
your work is great down to earth and no bullshit
That's what I am going for! :)
Long-only ETF allocation would be interesting
Ok, point taken!
Hi Alf, I also like the idea of the long-only ETF portfolio! A question in the meantime: if you had not yet invested and considering the current Quadrant 4 situation described in your article, would you wait out the hiking steps before entering the market (long)? Thanks
Markets tend to be forward looking and a serious hiking cycle is already priced in.
I am waiting either for earnings to be repriced down (as per my model) or for Central Banks to change their tune - not happening soon I guess.
A "long-only ETF portfolio with a medium/long term horizon" is exactly what I am investing in right now, so I would to see your take on it
Yup, I figured out it might help many
Yes, would be interested in the long-only portfolio. It doesn't need to be year plus, would be OK if it changed with cycle needs.
Yep, the 1y+ is just an indication obviously. If cycle is changing, I'll change the allocation.
Alf, love this report and your framework is great. I would love to see tracking an ETF portfolio - as I am attempting to invest in this way.
Rather than a 1 dimensional long list of long / short ETFs; I would love to see this structured with balanced allocations in mind. For example, in Quadrant 4, what general allocations should be to bonds and bond proxies? 40% Would this be different in the other Quadrants?
Also how to manage risks with position sizing? For example, if Quadrant 4, SPY puts (or VXX) could be a volatility allocation, but certainly its not a great idea to risk more than x% of the portfolio on a single trade.
Great point, Marc. Indeed the idea will be to build a portfolio using the Quadrants as the main indicator, and sizing each asset class accordingly.
Would really appreciate long-only ETF portfolio. I am not a sophisticated investor and keeping it simple would be great. When I do short it is w/ short ETF's so not sure if that is something you would consider adding as well. Love your work - there are only 3 folks I follow and respect and you are definitely 1 of them.
Who are the other 2? Curious :)
Hi Alfonso, the other 2 are Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) and @INArteCarloDoss (don't know who he is but seems to be pretty spot on, above my pay grade in for some of his stuff though I get the idea, I might not make it into @kittysquiddy new blog he is starting). I look what all 3 of you guys are saying and go from there. This world is crazy nuts and I lost my shorts in 2008, lost them again in gold in 2012 (thought the Fed printed money but thanks to guys like you know better now) and can't afford to lose my shorts any more - got kids to raise and put through college. I do appreciate your writings.
Great blog, read everything you write, a ETF google portfolio is a fab idea!
Glad you like it!
Excellent post as always Alf. I am sure you are aware how most investors are short duration here and positioned for higher equity prices so your contrarian call has even more value. Would love to see a 60/40 ETF portfolio. thanks for your work.
My pleasure, Luca!
Hello Alf, great piece of work. For the ETF long only, there is also value in othe areas (other than US). Would love to see exposure to other regions too ! China Tech for exemple, or EU Defense and Air
Correct Fabrizio, it's going to incorporate different asset classes and jurisdictions!
a lot of this goes over my head by I am learning. Long ETF portfolio would be of interest for sure. Thanks
By all means a long-only model ETF portfolio is welcome - esp one that takes into account your macro thoughts on how policies will impact markets in the year to come.
Thanks for your content Alf. As a retail investor a long only ETF folio update seems pretty ideal!
Alright, let's do it!