Many thanks, Alf! From the point of view of OIS curve shapes trades around 0 bps, and potential to be entering an equity market sell off, does that necessarily mean we're moving into Quadrant 4 (not sure if global credit impulse is still decreasing)?
Hi Carl. We have been sitting often in Quadrant 4 recently as the Fed decisively goes into tightening mode while the Credit Impulse was slowing indeed.
I will provide an update on where do we stand on The Macro Compass quadrants soon.
One question: Powell mentioned yesterday that he’s primarily looking at the spread between 3 month and 18 months Treasury yields and not so much at the 2s10s. What do you think of that?
Oh, and a follow-up question: what do you think about inverting yield curves outside the US? For example, UK 2s10s were close to inversion in February. It's only Gilts and not OIS, but I don't have a Bloomberg terminal, so gotta work with that 🙂
1) Is the 10y OIS - 3m OIS curve a completely inaccurate predictor of recession? I’ve read from other forums that mention that this is the only curve which academics/economists observe.
2) What’s your opinion on the 10y OIS - 5y OIS curve? The most recent article on Bloomberg referenced to the inversion of 10y - 5y curve (although they used nominal rates instead of OIS)
Great article! Also I went back to read the first two articles which were tremendously helpful too. I was an Econ major and took fixed income securities in college and the concepts of OIS and asset swap rate were not taught in school back then. So this is really helpful!
Mr. Alf, what's your theory for why a yield curve inversion is a leading indicator for a recession? Obviously, there's a correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions, but there's plenty of spurious correlation out there. And a related question, what's your theory (i.e. expectations theory, preferred habitat theory, etc.) for what determines the slope of the yield curve?
Really appreciate the great content Alf. Getting a great schooling in all things bonds!
That's exactly what I am going for! :)
Great stuff Alf. Love your work.
Thank you!
This is fantastic Alf - your material is top notch and we really appreciate it. Can't wait for all the future content you'll churn out! Thank you!
So happy to read these comments!
Wonderful post. Thank you very much for writing it, Alfonso.
Glad you liked it, Javier!
Many thanks, Alf! From the point of view of OIS curve shapes trades around 0 bps, and potential to be entering an equity market sell off, does that necessarily mean we're moving into Quadrant 4 (not sure if global credit impulse is still decreasing)?
Hi Carl. We have been sitting often in Quadrant 4 recently as the Fed decisively goes into tightening mode while the Credit Impulse was slowing indeed.
I will provide an update on where do we stand on The Macro Compass quadrants soon.
Thanks so much for the education!
You’re one of the best, most lucid financial writers I know…
Very kind of you :)
I guess one could add that it is the un-inversion following an inversion that really matters?
What's your thinking behind this?
See my reply on LinkedIn.
Great article!!
One doubt, the last i looked after OI of EFFR and SOFR long term swaps, i think i found a low volume.
Can you help me w that information? there is enough volume in those long term swaps?
Tks Alf!!
SOFR and OIS swaps are pretty liquid, I traded them in large size at my previous job. Would have to look for some numbers to substantiate :)
Great article, thanks a lot for your work!
One question: Powell mentioned yesterday that he’s primarily looking at the spread between 3 month and 18 months Treasury yields and not so much at the 2s10s. What do you think of that?
I think that's very wrong. I will put something out soon about that, too!
Oh, and a follow-up question: what do you think about inverting yield curves outside the US? For example, UK 2s10s were close to inversion in February. It's only Gilts and not OIS, but I don't have a Bloomberg terminal, so gotta work with that 🙂
This is really helpful - I wish there was a way to get live OIS data without a bloomberg terminal, but your work-around is a good start!
That's the best I could find! :)
Hi Alf, fantabulous article as usual!
Would like to seek your opinions on 2 matter:
1) Is the 10y OIS - 3m OIS curve a completely inaccurate predictor of recession? I’ve read from other forums that mention that this is the only curve which academics/economists observe.
2) What’s your opinion on the 10y OIS - 5y OIS curve? The most recent article on Bloomberg referenced to the inversion of 10y - 5y curve (although they used nominal rates instead of OIS)
It makes sense to look at 5s10s as well for the reasons indicated in the article, yes.
Using 3m OIS instead is just a lagging indicator: for that to move meaningfully, you'd need the hiking cycle to be already very advanced.
Great article! Also I went back to read the first two articles which were tremendously helpful too. I was an Econ major and took fixed income securities in college and the concepts of OIS and asset swap rate were not taught in school back then. So this is really helpful!
Glad I can help, Bruno!
Thank you.
Thank you for reading, Chris!
Great article. Thank you for the link to SOFR swap rate (annual/annual) as I don't have access to Bberg.
My pleasure! :)
Mr. Alf, what's your theory for why a yield curve inversion is a leading indicator for a recession? Obviously, there's a correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions, but there's plenty of spurious correlation out there. And a related question, what's your theory (i.e. expectations theory, preferred habitat theory, etc.) for what determines the slope of the yield curve?
Hi! I recently shared a piece here on The Macro Compass about this very topic. Check it out!
Great article! Does the site you posted or Bloomberg or Fred (st Louis) have any history (how much?) for this alternative yield curve?
If you have access to Bloomberg, you can look at a 10y+ history of OIS curves.
USSO2, USSO5, USSO10 and USSO30 are the tickers.