88 Comments

Good work.......I like the VAMD....I need to understand it, more

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I will continue elaborating about how that works over the coming articles, stay tuned!

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Excellent work and looking forward to the position sizing tool. Great writing as well, your communication is outstanding.

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Thanks Jon, you are very kind!

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Hello Alf,

mille gracie for the unbelievable valuable Information you provide to a small retail Investor, as i am. I live in Germany, and sometimes struggle to get access to the ETFs that are discussed in the macro channels. For example, the other day you mentioned a Proshares short S&P ETF, which is not accessable in the EU asfaik. What do you recommend? Get a swiss Broker Account? ;-) Or are there other options?

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I will pay more attention to looking at ETFs which are tradable in Europe too: you are right!

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It also depends on the passport of the ETF (each country is different) for instance I use LYNX ( International brokers platform TWS-IB ) the Belgium branch - their passports are Nederland registred. Depending on the country where you live my case BE you have to register foreign accounts with the National Bank Be - also note that you must declare your eventual dividends to the tax authority . Sometimes the ETF has no passport - you cannot buy it directly but they will allow you to buy OR sell the options. I'm also using DEGIRO (Nederland) but it is now registered in Germany ( acquisition by FLATEX). Therefore the passports are sometimes different and allow some additional flexibility.

The "ETF - "rage" is typical USA; and most of the "US educators don't care or know about the European situation" For Joe not sure Swiss brokers have a lot of the passports.

Also you can can take an US broker ( CQG-Ninja- also IB Dorman) - but the paperwork for the account approval is cumbersome (especially if you work through a company)

Be carefull though the US inform European tax authorities and the European legislation on "LAUNDERING" is very strict - you're often on the radarscreen even if you're as white as snow.... Some banks now even refuse to accept on your European account the trfrts are do have stringent questions and can even block your account. Hope this helps

Again thank you ALF you make a big difference with your approach and knowledge.

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Please include UK in Europe, Alf. We left . . . kinda, but not really.

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Ahahah :) I will include the UK too in all my dashboards :)

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Anxious to see the TMC Portfolio. Thanks.

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Eheh Roy, I am working on systematizing The Macro Compass models - hell of a work, but this way we are going to get a hopefully robust ETF portfolio across macro regimes!

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Thank you as always Alf! You're king among men

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King Sourdough Bread Maker! :)

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you are sooooo good!!!! looking forward to play with it!

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Stay tuned :)

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Great information and leaned about you from Emil and Jeff

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Amazing guys!

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I’ve been using the fed’s published Svennson model of nominal rates to calculate 1m18m and 3m18m. If anyone is unsure how to calculate those rates, Engstrom and Sharpe provide some clarity in their paper’s appendix A.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/nominal-yield-curve.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-near-term-forward-yield-spread-as-a-leading-indicator-a-less-distorted-mirror.htm

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No Alf, you're our hero! Thanks for all that you do and I look forward to seeing the VAMD and your other models!

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Stay tuned :)

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Hello Alf,

Are you planning to publish VAND project as an open source/community project (so that other can also contribute) or would you rather keep it as the properiary/your own tool for macro compass/twitter content creation?. Cheers, Adam

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It's a lot of proprietary work but I plan to share this with you guys :)

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This reminds me a lot of what people like Antti Ilmanen, Meb Faber and the ReSolve Crew are always talking about in interviews and their podcasts/books.

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Looking forward to it!! sounds amazing and you have definitely capture the spirit of Applied Macro! Macro without a pragmatic view or trade is worthless! :)

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That's what we go for, Alberto! :)

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Alf I love your articles and all your work on blockworks and wealthion. I shout your name from the rooftops to anyone who would listen. These new tools you are releasing are a godsend to individual investors like me. Thank you so much for doing what you love to do.

You motioned for suggestions of people to interview in your last vid. I would suggest a youtuber by the name of Maverick of Wallstreet. He's tremendously entertaining and his viewpoints overlap those of you and your crew. I don't think he ever shows his face though. He's still a working fund manager and has mentioned that he's got into trouble before for sharing his opinions.

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Thanks for the kind words and the suggestion!

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Sempre al TOP

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Ci proviamo!

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is this... a project of macro investment liberalization?

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Pretty much :)

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Thank you Alf! Great overview of our macro environment.

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Thanks, Kevin!

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