So say we do go into Quadrant 1 on the "Forward-looking macro indicators". What exactly does it mean to go long Developed Markets vs. Emerging markets? Same question going short Value vs. Growth. You go long the latter & short the former?
Oct 27, 2022·edited Oct 27, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Really appreciate the insight and your work, Alf. Two questions to ponder 1. What would this scenario look like for the US if other central banks did pivot but the fed did not. And 2. would the FED continue QT under this circumstance or be forced to pivot based on the answer to the first question.
So you took profits on Russell 2000 short on this push higher, what do you think further on Russell 2000, its still the most vulnerable of the others and still inflation is very high so why change of heart on this position? Shouldnt you be adding more at higher levels as the Fed just said that they are looking for credibility to be regained and last month as well, Powell made an oath-like promise that it would work.
Alfonso what do you think about TLTRO's terms redefined.: could the TLTRO funds currently parked at ECB used to buy euro govvies instead of offered for redemption at ECB? And in effect serve similar purpose/effects as U.S. Treasury twist operations = support euro gov nonds market? Appreciate your expert view.
Thank you very much Alf. Always spot on, well documented and pretty understandable. I’m a big fan. I was however wondering whether it’s fully fair to compare real rates today vs. the 90s? Isn’t the debt to gdb much higher today thus making a 100pb above neutral as restrictive for the economic actors as a 300bp back then ?
Great breakdown today! Swaps are a bit over my head still, but because of your teachings, I've been understanding them more as I've been curious. Seasonality Charts from Moore's Research from 1985 to 2017 shows that the DXY tends to go higher into November.
With the news events scheduled for next week and the tone of ECBs stance on monetary policy, We might just see continued downside movement in the EURO going into November. For now, sidelines for me. Incredible portfolio ROI btw...awesome stuff! 😎
Remember all that excitement at the start of the month because the RBA only hiked 25bps instead of 50bp
Australia's sobering CPI inflation data:
Annual inflation jumped to 7.3% from 6.1% on the back of a monthly rate of 1.8% (above the consensus forecast of 1.6%).
The annual trimmed mean (core) inflation rate came in at 6.1%, well above the 5.6% consensus forecast.
So say we do go into Quadrant 1 on the "Forward-looking macro indicators". What exactly does it mean to go long Developed Markets vs. Emerging markets? Same question going short Value vs. Growth. You go long the latter & short the former?
Excellent content Alf and it is much appreciated!
Such a pleasure to get your thoughts, thanks Alf!
Thank you Alf!
Really appreciate the insight and your work, Alf. Two questions to ponder 1. What would this scenario look like for the US if other central banks did pivot but the fed did not. And 2. would the FED continue QT under this circumstance or be forced to pivot based on the answer to the first question.
Very articulate
Where can I find the 1y1m OIS rates in real time? Is that a specific charting software you are using?
Thanks
So you took profits on Russell 2000 short on this push higher, what do you think further on Russell 2000, its still the most vulnerable of the others and still inflation is very high so why change of heart on this position? Shouldnt you be adding more at higher levels as the Fed just said that they are looking for credibility to be regained and last month as well, Powell made an oath-like promise that it would work.
Alfonso what do you think about TLTRO's terms redefined.: could the TLTRO funds currently parked at ECB used to buy euro govvies instead of offered for redemption at ECB? And in effect serve similar purpose/effects as U.S. Treasury twist operations = support euro gov nonds market? Appreciate your expert view.
Hello everybody, can you tell me please what kind of money is paid as interest when a bank is engaged on a repo ??
Is it "reserve money" or "real money for economy"?
Thank you very much in advance.
Thank you very much Alf. Always spot on, well documented and pretty understandable. I’m a big fan. I was however wondering whether it’s fully fair to compare real rates today vs. the 90s? Isn’t the debt to gdb much higher today thus making a 100pb above neutral as restrictive for the economic actors as a 300bp back then ?
Thanks for putting into context the recent move in the markets!
Great breakdown today! Swaps are a bit over my head still, but because of your teachings, I've been understanding them more as I've been curious. Seasonality Charts from Moore's Research from 1985 to 2017 shows that the DXY tends to go higher into November.
With the news events scheduled for next week and the tone of ECBs stance on monetary policy, We might just see continued downside movement in the EURO going into November. For now, sidelines for me. Incredible portfolio ROI btw...awesome stuff! 😎
There are some odds that because of the huge debt levels much less tightening might flip over the table back to QE and ZIRP, maybe even deflation.
Alf loved this one! Very good.
Is it possible to view the volatility adjusted market dashboard in real time?