Thanks, just started following yesterday. I appreciate your framework and perspective,. I say yes to " publishing long/short recommendations with entry, stop loss, profit targets and live P&L tracking in a more structured format?"
Very useful, I didn't know you had a blog too. I'm in a learning process (I'm a MD...) and the way you put the stuff out is understandable and allows me to think and learn.
Absolutely could be interesting to add some inputs about specific long/short positioning, only thing (if you decide to go for it), keep it relaxed.
I already follow a couple of blogs with same structure (macro outlook + specific inputs about equities etc...) and I've tried some others (all paid for, btw...). The dynamic IMO is that they end up trying to hide their wrong calls (of course they make wrong calls... probably they fear that if they admit a mistake you will be going to stop paying them), at the expense of the reasoning process (learning from mistakes is critically useful).
In a nutshell, keep it relaxed, regardless as to whether you add a paywall in the future.
In any case, great stuff! Thanks for sharing this :)
I started following you very recently. Very useful content and I appreciate P&Ltracking. One question: where do you get the data from for the global credit Impuls?
Hi Alfonso, Thanks for the easy to follow insights even for macro amateurs like me.
Can you at some point also add a little more granularity into your compass quadrants?
As you now already referenced it twice and at least prt of your audience is not as well educated in capital markets as you are, adding granularity in the positions you would go long or short etc per quadrant might be beneficial.
As to your question on positions: while added transparency makes it even easier to follow your investments, people might also blindly follow you and this board at some point (depending on the success of the positions) could turn into a wsb/reddit like echo chamber and will require significantly more moderation. Just my 2 cents. Have a great weekend.
thanks for publishing this. If real yields are at risk of rising for the worst reason, there must be a possibility that central banks will recognise it as a problem and stay loose. However easing has diminishing returns each time so the scale they'd need to do it on is hard to fathom. Plus we have China pretty clearly deciding to slow down, which could push the world into quad 4 regardless.
once we get a negative direction in 10yr yields and 10yr inflation expectation how long until equity markets start to react? also does it matter what the base level of where current rates are (where we are and where we have come from) or is it a universal that regardless of current or past conditions, when 10yr yields and 10yr inflation expectations diverge, bad things happen?
thoughtful observations thank you. are your quadrants quantitatively defined or subjective interpretation of environment after using quantitative indicators to guide judgement?
Very interresting view. It really makes sens, though I still have in mind that we are in a situation we have never had before. The U6 Unemployment rate is at 10.2 %, which was at 6.8 pre pandemic. I do see the bottle neck inflation based on logistical issues and commodity shortage. Order books are filled and job openings are still high. opec, eia, iea Oil forecasts are still expansionary for the coming years. Copper looks like it is retracing and the semiconductor shortage sould take about 1-2 years. With the QE we had so far it seemed like we worked through Qudrant 1 to 3 in lightning speed, but more as a need jerk reaction base on the credit surge than on real ecomnomical growth. I do also see that the housing market is slowing down and credit growth too, but like Powell said, you can only see a trend with at least 3 data points. And considering the the COT report, dealers were heavily short EUR. Lets see how it plays out, and if we are good for fishing or if we are moving back in the Quadrant to tackle the cylcle in real speed. Hope that makes sense, and sorry if not since I'm not working in finance.
Question: would you be interested if I’d publish my long/short recommendations with entry, stop loss, profit targets and live P&L tracking in a more structured format? That would be interresting :-)
Ciao, I've just subscribed and I'm going through the history. Very Nice work.
I wanted to ask what you are using for your 5y5y Real as it's not anything like the history using FWCM function for US Tips curve. The tIcker out of FWCM is GO169 5Y5Y BLC2 Curncy. That history has 5y5y Real peaking in Mar above 40bp and falling smoothly to now be -10bp.
Hi! as per your diagram, from Oct20-Mar21 we were at the Quadrant3 i.e monetary policy was net tightening..is that right? or am I missing something! ps: excelent work!
Thanks, just started following yesterday. I appreciate your framework and perspective,. I say yes to " publishing long/short recommendations with entry, stop loss, profit targets and live P&L tracking in a more structured format?"
Very useful, I didn't know you had a blog too. I'm in a learning process (I'm a MD...) and the way you put the stuff out is understandable and allows me to think and learn.
Absolutely could be interesting to add some inputs about specific long/short positioning, only thing (if you decide to go for it), keep it relaxed.
I already follow a couple of blogs with same structure (macro outlook + specific inputs about equities etc...) and I've tried some others (all paid for, btw...). The dynamic IMO is that they end up trying to hide their wrong calls (of course they make wrong calls... probably they fear that if they admit a mistake you will be going to stop paying them), at the expense of the reasoning process (learning from mistakes is critically useful).
In a nutshell, keep it relaxed, regardless as to whether you add a paywall in the future.
In any case, great stuff! Thanks for sharing this :)
To answer your question: definitely would appreciate P&L tracking. Skin in the game makes the message so much stronger!
I started following you very recently. Very useful content and I appreciate P&Ltracking. One question: where do you get the data from for the global credit Impuls?
Hi Alfonso, Thanks for the easy to follow insights even for macro amateurs like me.
Can you at some point also add a little more granularity into your compass quadrants?
As you now already referenced it twice and at least prt of your audience is not as well educated in capital markets as you are, adding granularity in the positions you would go long or short etc per quadrant might be beneficial.
As to your question on positions: while added transparency makes it even easier to follow your investments, people might also blindly follow you and this board at some point (depending on the success of the positions) could turn into a wsb/reddit like echo chamber and will require significantly more moderation. Just my 2 cents. Have a great weekend.
thanks for publishing this. If real yields are at risk of rising for the worst reason, there must be a possibility that central banks will recognise it as a problem and stay loose. However easing has diminishing returns each time so the scale they'd need to do it on is hard to fathom. Plus we have China pretty clearly deciding to slow down, which could push the world into quad 4 regardless.
once we get a negative direction in 10yr yields and 10yr inflation expectation how long until equity markets start to react? also does it matter what the base level of where current rates are (where we are and where we have come from) or is it a universal that regardless of current or past conditions, when 10yr yields and 10yr inflation expectations diverge, bad things happen?
thoughtful observations thank you. are your quadrants quantitatively defined or subjective interpretation of environment after using quantitative indicators to guide judgement?
Looking forward to asses your performance.
Very interresting view. It really makes sens, though I still have in mind that we are in a situation we have never had before. The U6 Unemployment rate is at 10.2 %, which was at 6.8 pre pandemic. I do see the bottle neck inflation based on logistical issues and commodity shortage. Order books are filled and job openings are still high. opec, eia, iea Oil forecasts are still expansionary for the coming years. Copper looks like it is retracing and the semiconductor shortage sould take about 1-2 years. With the QE we had so far it seemed like we worked through Qudrant 1 to 3 in lightning speed, but more as a need jerk reaction base on the credit surge than on real ecomnomical growth. I do also see that the housing market is slowing down and credit growth too, but like Powell said, you can only see a trend with at least 3 data points. And considering the the COT report, dealers were heavily short EUR. Lets see how it plays out, and if we are good for fishing or if we are moving back in the Quadrant to tackle the cylcle in real speed. Hope that makes sense, and sorry if not since I'm not working in finance.
Thank you would love that please
Question: would you be interested if I’d publish my long/short recommendations with entry, stop loss, profit targets and live P&L tracking in a more structured format? That would be interresting :-)
Yes, I would love to see your trade set ups, logic, and portfolio composition, and an explanation on why a certain thesis didn't work as expected.
Ciao, I've just subscribed and I'm going through the history. Very Nice work.
I wanted to ask what you are using for your 5y5y Real as it's not anything like the history using FWCM function for US Tips curve. The tIcker out of FWCM is GO169 5Y5Y BLC2 Curncy. That history has 5y5y Real peaking in Mar above 40bp and falling smoothly to now be -10bp.
Love seeing the trading history too!
cheers,
karl.
Hi! as per your diagram, from Oct20-Mar21 we were at the Quadrant3 i.e monetary policy was net tightening..is that right? or am I missing something! ps: excelent work!
What impact for the euro zone? Would you applied same advice?