I’m very glad someone is starting to row back against consensus positioning. The market seems to have got ahead of its skis. The Fed still intends to cut twice next year by their own admission, less cuts only happen if there is inflationary expansion. If inflation does continue to come down then more cuts will start to be priced back in and we probably land on 100bps next year. The Trump administration only creates and spreads uncertainty and confusion, neither of which markets appreciate for equity outperformance.
I’m very glad someone is starting to row back against consensus positioning. The market seems to have got ahead of its skis. The Fed still intends to cut twice next year by their own admission, less cuts only happen if there is inflationary expansion. If inflation does continue to come down then more cuts will start to be priced back in and we probably land on 100bps next year. The Trump administration only creates and spreads uncertainty and confusion, neither of which markets appreciate for equity outperformance.
Reversal of steepening trade!?