Nov 23, 2022·edited Nov 23, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Hi Alf,
I think the chart #1 is color inverted?
If I understood well, the "orange" should be the Credit Impulse (is the orange line that leads the blue line)... otherwise I really do not get why the EPS should be -2X% for EPS if the Credit Impulse is still +1%
Nov 29, 2022·edited Nov 29, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Hi Alf, just a few quick questions. What exactly is going away next year (or month) on this Substack once the subscription period starts? All contents? Will I see have access to nothing but your Twitter tweets if I don't subscribe? Thanks for the article, as always!
I agree it’s noisy however given how extreme this is and how well it’s correlating to the QT, makes it a bit more ominous. And it’s a nice addition to your other indicators.
Thx Alf but I look at all these macro indicators suggest that markets should be much lower…but my over-riding question is that give the market is a forward indicator why markets are where they are!!??? What am I missing?
where are you getting your data from? I just checked your 2 first charts. The US Credit Impulse Index for 3Q22 is up at 5.75% and increased from the previous Q at 3.18% (I understand you used Global not US, could not find global data, my source is Bloomberg). The S&P 500 EPS for 4Q22 according to YCharts is 48.71 growing to 53.24 in 4Q23. And according to the Conference Board The Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. I am sorry, but I am very confused
What a fantastic 12 minutes of educational listening this morning. Going back to read what you posted as well. I want to see the charts. :) I thought for sure we'd be in recession as early as Q1 2021 based upon the world's reaction to the thing. I had no understanding about the lag in the equation. I'm leaning thanks to folks like you. Thanks for the education, Alf.
The credit impulse is your main model for the macro compass as such, I'm puzzled to what changed in the model between June 2021 and June 2022? You have released snippets of the model showing it at the same point it is now but a year earlier during 2021.
This is the best newsletter I've read from you the last 6 months.
Wonderful way to explain, and honestly I feel it's because you took the level and "bank-language" to a lower gear. Makes it either to understand.
Thank you!
Hi Alf,
I think the chart #1 is color inverted?
If I understood well, the "orange" should be the Credit Impulse (is the orange line that leads the blue line)... otherwise I really do not get why the EPS should be -2X% for EPS if the Credit Impulse is still +1%
Thanks!
Hello Alf!
Thanks for the article!
I'm thinking of subscribing to your platform, however I'm afraid I won't be able to act on your ideas with the brokers I'm currently using,
Do you have any broker recommendations to take full advantage of your offer please?
Again an amazing summary. Thank you Alfonso! Amazing work!!!
Lucid. Fact based. Actionable. Historical context and best of all ….
It justifies me chasing long bond yields lower over the past. 2 weeks.
Hi Alf, just a few quick questions. What exactly is going away next year (or month) on this Substack once the subscription period starts? All contents? Will I see have access to nothing but your Twitter tweets if I don't subscribe? Thanks for the article, as always!
I agree it’s noisy however given how extreme this is and how well it’s correlating to the QT, makes it a bit more ominous. And it’s a nice addition to your other indicators.
Thank you again for your work!
Hi, can I ask what the Global Credit Impulse indicator is built up of? Is it possible to replicate with tickers in Bloomberg?
Many thanks,
Is time to short again the russell 2000?
very concise and easy to read & understand. Please keep it this way.
M2 contracted 1.5% in the 7 months through October, with a lag of 12 months, 5 months out from there is a good bet.
Thx Alf but I look at all these macro indicators suggest that markets should be much lower…but my over-riding question is that give the market is a forward indicator why markets are where they are!!??? What am I missing?
where are you getting your data from? I just checked your 2 first charts. The US Credit Impulse Index for 3Q22 is up at 5.75% and increased from the previous Q at 3.18% (I understand you used Global not US, could not find global data, my source is Bloomberg). The S&P 500 EPS for 4Q22 according to YCharts is 48.71 growing to 53.24 in 4Q23. And according to the Conference Board The Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in October The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for the U.S. increased by 0.9 percent in October to 118.3 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September and a 0.7 percent increase in August. I am sorry, but I am very confused
What a fantastic 12 minutes of educational listening this morning. Going back to read what you posted as well. I want to see the charts. :) I thought for sure we'd be in recession as early as Q1 2021 based upon the world's reaction to the thing. I had no understanding about the lag in the equation. I'm leaning thanks to folks like you. Thanks for the education, Alf.
Well balanced analysis throughout the article!
The credit impulse is your main model for the macro compass as such, I'm puzzled to what changed in the model between June 2021 and June 2022? You have released snippets of the model showing it at the same point it is now but a year earlier during 2021.
Thanks in advance for the clarity.
Oh it's beautiful Alf! Not the implications but the writing.