Alf, love the content! One suggestion for future articles that would be helpful for us newbies :)
- What are the most important (or just your favorite) lagging, coincident, and leading indicators to monitor and why? How do they interrelate with each other?
these people might appear smart, so did the people at LTCM. In the end they are only making a semi-educated guess, fraught with all sorts of cognitive biais. I don't want to be a party pooper, but we must keep our eyes open.
I would love to hear your views on what would happen in a scenario where the BRIC (along with Saudi-Arabia) creates a gold backed currency and starts trading commodities with it instead of USD?
Oct 21, 2022·edited Oct 21, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Alf - this is great ( tangible, useful, actionable), thank you!!
I would like to understand a bit more why you opt for going long IEF and not TLT (which should fall hardest on an economic downturn?). On the other side of the trade, why you opt for going long SH, not other focused areas of the market (I.e.: real estate like ERK — though not very liquid).
Oct 22, 2022·edited Oct 22, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
I wonder whether the implied trade isn't short bond vol to long index vol, rather than outright long bonds to short equities. The risk is a continued worsening of the dislocation we're seeing between bond and equity vol (indices flat, equity vol stable, yields up bond vol up), but even so, for most of the year, equity rvols have been > ivols. If you're realizing your long equity vol position thru e.g. straddles, then even in the case where you get ivols down, you'll likely realize convex delta moves.
Thank you for this article and podcast Alf. I deeply appreciate this type of macro strategy alpha trade idea. You differentiate yourself in this way. Assimilating thoughtful macro analysis from some of the most successful portfolio managers in the world, with your experienced perspective, and concluding with a practical way to express it. This is the type of macro environment that requires a diverse (relative value) approach that will add alpha to a portfolio but if wrong, won't blow it up. Directional trades are fine, especially when you get them right, however the beta and drawdown risk can be career ending when you get them wrong. Much appreciated and keep up the great work. Cheers, Filo
Alf, great content, I've been following your blog for a few days. I read many of his articles and thought it was fantastic. I would like to know if there is any training you would recommend so that I can understand more about Macroeconomics operations.
Oct 21, 2022·edited Oct 22, 2022Liked by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)
Hi Alf,
Congrats for the article. Thank you for writing it. I just have one quick question I would be very thankful if you could answer: I have seen you have explained in other post your estimation of the equity risk premium - https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-polar-stars#details - but is there not a mismatch comparing expectations of earnings for the next 12 months with expectations on risk free rate after 60 months from now?
Alf, love the content! One suggestion for future articles that would be helpful for us newbies :)
- What are the most important (or just your favorite) lagging, coincident, and leading indicators to monitor and why? How do they interrelate with each other?
these people might appear smart, so did the people at LTCM. In the end they are only making a semi-educated guess, fraught with all sorts of cognitive biais. I don't want to be a party pooper, but we must keep our eyes open.
Dear Alf,
best content!
I would love to hear your views on what would happen in a scenario where the BRIC (along with Saudi-Arabia) creates a gold backed currency and starts trading commodities with it instead of USD?
Pretty please!
Alf - this is great ( tangible, useful, actionable), thank you!!
I would like to understand a bit more why you opt for going long IEF and not TLT (which should fall hardest on an economic downturn?). On the other side of the trade, why you opt for going long SH, not other focused areas of the market (I.e.: real estate like ERK — though not very liquid).
Francisco
Thanks Alf. And for people living in Europe and have euro accounts would this trade be same considering the currency risk?
As always - so well written that it's enjooybable and interesting
I wonder whether the implied trade isn't short bond vol to long index vol, rather than outright long bonds to short equities. The risk is a continued worsening of the dislocation we're seeing between bond and equity vol (indices flat, equity vol stable, yields up bond vol up), but even so, for most of the year, equity rvols have been > ivols. If you're realizing your long equity vol position thru e.g. straddles, then even in the case where you get ivols down, you'll likely realize convex delta moves.
Thank you, appreciate as always your comprehensive and insightful coverage. Have a good weekend!
Brilliant insight, Alf, as always. And thanks for the 50 Kalo tip ; )
Thank you for this article and podcast Alf. I deeply appreciate this type of macro strategy alpha trade idea. You differentiate yourself in this way. Assimilating thoughtful macro analysis from some of the most successful portfolio managers in the world, with your experienced perspective, and concluding with a practical way to express it. This is the type of macro environment that requires a diverse (relative value) approach that will add alpha to a portfolio but if wrong, won't blow it up. Directional trades are fine, especially when you get them right, however the beta and drawdown risk can be career ending when you get them wrong. Much appreciated and keep up the great work. Cheers, Filo
Good info Alf. No matter how busy I am I always read your emails.
Alf, great content, I've been following your blog for a few days. I read many of his articles and thought it was fantastic. I would like to know if there is any training you would recommend so that I can understand more about Macroeconomics operations.
Alf, you’re the man.
Thanks very much Alf - great stuff.
Enjoyed the MacroCompass masterclass with AXIA - very well explained.
Alf, I noticed that you prefer TLT for the long duration treasury exposure. Why not individual bonds?
Hi Alf,
Congrats for the article. Thank you for writing it. I just have one quick question I would be very thankful if you could answer: I have seen you have explained in other post your estimation of the equity risk premium - https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/macro-polar-stars#details - but is there not a mismatch comparing expectations of earnings for the next 12 months with expectations on risk free rate after 60 months from now?
Thanks indeed
Best regards
Javier