TMC #10! Mr. Bond Market got louder last week: further unwinding of reflation trades and resumption of secular trends. Where do we stand on The Macro Compass?
Nice work. May I ask where you source the credit impulse data from? I look at FRED and watch loans and leases, commercial loans, and margin loans (other, non-MBS).
Something like 18 different sources to come up with a proper G5 credit impulse data. Yes, the C&I Loans are a good place where to start for US bank lending data.
Hi Alfonso - congrats Italia on winning the euros - Ireland is happy but our neighbour UK did well and had a great race to runners up - they have some great young players.
Feedback - yes, I like the macro compass and I really liked your RV interview.
Perhaps can you make it a little more practical. As a trader I just want something to look at, something to add to a watch list - it can be a long term idea. Simplify and make it a little more understandable to all - who cares about the academics. Add some basic lessons and refer back to them and then proceed. Assume we know little about capital markets.
First congrats of all congrats on Italy winning the EUFA final. I have to say that enjoy your articles and use you as a counter balance to insight reports that I read daily. It seem you go against the Bank analyst consensus and so far you are winning. I'm paying more attention!!!
nothing too specific..truth is so many trades mimic each other: gld/copper, growth/value, cyclicals/defensives etc etc. XLU/IVE is simply a liquid trade that is still near it's lows.
I am really curious as to its slightly net dovish from the monetary standpoint. I think the implied policy rates for the vast majority of the countries are up, at least based on what Central Banks said. Their actions on the other hand ECB allowing a more flexible target, and the RRR cut from PBOC is another. I also wonder if its a difference in the horizon as well, most of the FED statements are well into 2222 or many years out. But that does not help our portfolio today.
In addition to the decreasing credit, I see a decrease in the speed of inflation. Maybe it's causal or not, but of the 2 elements on quadrant 1 and quadrant 4 it's the most stable idea to base some trades around.
R* is driven mostly by the growth (or lack thereof) of labor productivity and labor force supply. Other components in there are capital productivity and appetite/availability of risk-free assets. Ah, another important one is leverage in the economy, especially private sector but also public debt levels.
In 2015, Lacy Hunt said that a simple proxy for r* is nominal GDP growth because it is broad based. If true, I am sure it would need a smoothing function.
Ciao Alf, first of all thank you really a lot for providing this incredible amount of valuable information and analysis for free. I really appreciate it. E poi sono del paese dove hai mangiato la pizza. Sei anche tu del posto? Saluti
Quadrant 4 here we come!? Hi Alfonso, I hope all is well. It should be an interesting next few months with perhaps increasing forces to Quadrant 4. Hopefully you don't see this trajectory being likely, and I look forward to your next update.
Great article! I have a similar view and positioned in markets accordingly. The risk to this base case could be additional trillion dollar fiscal stimulus (beyond what is currently in the works), which would push us back to quadrant 2 or 3 (depending on how Fed subsequently reacts). Historically, as real economy slows down, the US administration has tried to do more fiscal especially when effectiveness of monetary policy has run out (as it is now). Any thoughts on this risk? My own view is this is unlikely for now as governemnts would want commodity prices to come down first and show that inflation is transitory.
Hi Pawan! Thanks for the nice words. Further large fiscal stimulus might happen, but mid term elections represent a political obstacle and in general crisis-like responses only happen…during crisis.
Great article, and learned so much from your RV interview. It looks like most of your readers are professional traders, but what would be your advice to someone who does not trade but holds stocks for a relatively longer time (at least 1 year). Long growth stocks? or may be options for those stocks that you really want to buy and hold?
Hi Alfonso, first all again many thanks for this great piece of real knowledge for free! This is top stuff! I have been following the Compass since early inception and had time to reflect a bit and I have one question. Is it the purpose of the compass to move/change every week or month? Basically moving following the wind blowing? Meaning isn't the quadrant creating a short term bias on our long term decisions? I would appreciate if your could (maybe in a new post?) please help me to understand better how should I read the compass for my long-term investment goals. Many thanks in advance and again, great stuff!
The Macro Compass is generally a medium term macro tool. It's very rare for the red dot to move within quadrants every week. Sometimes you might peek into the scary quadrant (Quad 4) for few weeks before reverting back to the medium term relevant Quadrant.
For instance, we were in Quadrant 3 for 8-9 months (Sep 20 - May 21) before reverting back to Quadrant 1 (June 21 - today).
I think a long/short position XLK/XLF (you can replace XLF also with XHB or XLI) would do the job; one question though: should CPI overshoot expectations tomorrow, this would push things in the direction of quadrant 4, correct? The higher inflation, the higher the pressure on Fed to raise rates in advance; correct? Because credit growth / fiscal stimulus has already peaked and this is now on a fairly predictable trajectory, the only variable at the time being is inflation; higher inflation = Fed cannot go to quadrant 1 before visiting quadrant 4… do you agree?
Tech vs financials seems reasonable to me, a bit similar to my long Nasdaq/short Eurostoxx idea. Will look into it.
The answer to your question is: not necessarily. The Fed has been pretty clear they consider inflation overshoots transitory (I do agree, although we might see another 3 quarters of >2.5% core PCE). So their reaction function is a bit more tied to hard data especially if coming from the labor market -> watch payrolls closely.
Nice work. May I ask where you source the credit impulse data from? I look at FRED and watch loans and leases, commercial loans, and margin loans (other, non-MBS).
Something like 18 different sources to come up with a proper G5 credit impulse data. Yes, the C&I Loans are a good place where to start for US bank lending data.
If the fed is pegging FFR at 0% and inflation is 2%, the real FFR is -2%. But is this not a tightening rather than loose monetary policy?
The fed is holding the FFR artificially high.
BTW, love your stuff. Thank you for posting it.
Thanks, Steve!
When the real Fed Funds rate is below r*, the policy is accommodative.
And vice versa.
Monetary accommodation is measured using r-r* short rates or long rates? If you consider tapering I’m assuming long rates. Or is it a blend?
Big fan of your work btw
It's a blend actually
Thank you!
Hi Alfonso - congrats Italia on winning the euros - Ireland is happy but our neighbour UK did well and had a great race to runners up - they have some great young players.
Feedback - yes, I like the macro compass and I really liked your RV interview.
Perhaps can you make it a little more practical. As a trader I just want something to look at, something to add to a watch list - it can be a long term idea. Simplify and make it a little more understandable to all - who cares about the academics. Add some basic lessons and refer back to them and then proceed. Assume we know little about capital markets.
But you are doing great
Hi Tom, thanks for the feedback!
First congrats of all congrats on Italy winning the EUFA final. I have to say that enjoy your articles and use you as a counter balance to insight reports that I read daily. It seem you go against the Bank analyst consensus and so far you are winning. I'm paying more attention!!!
Thanks! Consensus is still very skewed towards reflationary trades, which is also probably one reason behind such sharp unwinding. Good for me :)
thanks. 100% agreed.
XLU/IVE
Help me out, why would that work nicely?
nothing too specific..truth is so many trades mimic each other: gld/copper, growth/value, cyclicals/defensives etc etc. XLU/IVE is simply a liquid trade that is still near it's lows.
I am really curious as to its slightly net dovish from the monetary standpoint. I think the implied policy rates for the vast majority of the countries are up, at least based on what Central Banks said. Their actions on the other hand ECB allowing a more flexible target, and the RRR cut from PBOC is another. I also wonder if its a difference in the horizon as well, most of the FED statements are well into 2222 or many years out. But that does not help our portfolio today.
In addition to the decreasing credit, I see a decrease in the speed of inflation. Maybe it's causal or not, but of the 2 elements on quadrant 1 and quadrant 4 it's the most stable idea to base some trades around.
Hi Derek. The net dovish stance is relative against r* and market consensus.
How do you measure r* and what drives it?
R* is driven mostly by the growth (or lack thereof) of labor productivity and labor force supply. Other components in there are capital productivity and appetite/availability of risk-free assets. Ah, another important one is leverage in the economy, especially private sector but also public debt levels.
In 2015, Lacy Hunt said that a simple proxy for r* is nominal GDP growth because it is broad based. If true, I am sure it would need a smoothing function.
I disagree with him on this.
Do you know of any simple proxy for r*?
Nice work! I'm currently building up my position on Long Yen Futures...would probably fit into section 1 and 4
Yen is an interesting animal, thanks for pointing that out.
Ciao Alf, first of all thank you really a lot for providing this incredible amount of valuable information and analysis for free. I really appreciate it. E poi sono del paese dove hai mangiato la pizza. Sei anche tu del posto? Saluti
Di Battipaglia :)
Quadrant 4 here we come!? Hi Alfonso, I hope all is well. It should be an interesting next few months with perhaps increasing forces to Quadrant 4. Hopefully you don't see this trajectory being likely, and I look forward to your next update.
Great article! I have a similar view and positioned in markets accordingly. The risk to this base case could be additional trillion dollar fiscal stimulus (beyond what is currently in the works), which would push us back to quadrant 2 or 3 (depending on how Fed subsequently reacts). Historically, as real economy slows down, the US administration has tried to do more fiscal especially when effectiveness of monetary policy has run out (as it is now). Any thoughts on this risk? My own view is this is unlikely for now as governemnts would want commodity prices to come down first and show that inflation is transitory.
Hi Pawan! Thanks for the nice words. Further large fiscal stimulus might happen, but mid term elections represent a political obstacle and in general crisis-like responses only happen…during crisis.
Great article, and learned so much from your RV interview. It looks like most of your readers are professional traders, but what would be your advice to someone who does not trade but holds stocks for a relatively longer time (at least 1 year). Long growth stocks? or may be options for those stocks that you really want to buy and hold?
Hi Aktan! I myself buy and hold 90% of my savings into a secular portfolio I like. I only actively manage 10% of my savings.
With >1 year time horizon, I'd definitely suggest growth stocks rather than value/cyclical.
Hi Alfonso, first all again many thanks for this great piece of real knowledge for free! This is top stuff! I have been following the Compass since early inception and had time to reflect a bit and I have one question. Is it the purpose of the compass to move/change every week or month? Basically moving following the wind blowing? Meaning isn't the quadrant creating a short term bias on our long term decisions? I would appreciate if your could (maybe in a new post?) please help me to understand better how should I read the compass for my long-term investment goals. Many thanks in advance and again, great stuff!
Hi Adriano!
The Macro Compass is generally a medium term macro tool. It's very rare for the red dot to move within quadrants every week. Sometimes you might peek into the scary quadrant (Quad 4) for few weeks before reverting back to the medium term relevant Quadrant.
For instance, we were in Quadrant 3 for 8-9 months (Sep 20 - May 21) before reverting back to Quadrant 1 (June 21 - today).
i saw that idea/post to be short Estoxx, but did not see a post for the cover and rationale...did i miss it? or is this it?
Hi Smitty, here (penultimate paragraph): https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-9-the-bond-market-is-talking.
There will always be full transparency on my tactical trades.
As a reminder, still running my long-term structural asset allocation
- 70% MSCI World EUR hedged
- 20% US Treasuries
- 10% Gold
About +10% YTD on that part, +5.5% on the tactical portion.
appreciate that thanks. it was in a "TMC" note rather than a "PA" note which is why i missed it.
I think a long/short position XLK/XLF (you can replace XLF also with XHB or XLI) would do the job; one question though: should CPI overshoot expectations tomorrow, this would push things in the direction of quadrant 4, correct? The higher inflation, the higher the pressure on Fed to raise rates in advance; correct? Because credit growth / fiscal stimulus has already peaked and this is now on a fairly predictable trajectory, the only variable at the time being is inflation; higher inflation = Fed cannot go to quadrant 1 before visiting quadrant 4… do you agree?
Tech vs financials seems reasonable to me, a bit similar to my long Nasdaq/short Eurostoxx idea. Will look into it.
The answer to your question is: not necessarily. The Fed has been pretty clear they consider inflation overshoots transitory (I do agree, although we might see another 3 quarters of >2.5% core PCE). So their reaction function is a bit more tied to hard data especially if coming from the labor market -> watch payrolls closely.